Category Archives: Meteorology

40 Day Report of Monsoon in India and its Impact on Agriculture. #MonsoonInIndia

40 Day Report of Monsoon in India and its Impact on Agriculture.
This year for the first time I am going to write about the topic which is most talked about in the present condition and that is the Monsoon in the Country. I have in my older posts discussed about the importance of Rainfall for India and the stages of Monsoon. But this time in today’s post I would want to give an update on the present scenario of Rainfall in India and the its effect on Agriculture.
First let me give you the overview of South West Monsoon in India till Yesterday. As per the data released by IMD the rainfall in India is at 9% deficit and that’s a big worrying point. IMD predicted Monsoon to be in the range of 97%-103% now it is at 91%. July is the month which normally sees highest rainfall in the Country and we are in deficit. Though the 9% looks a small number the deficit when it comes to individual states is ranging anywhere between 15-50%. Yes, we cannot rule out the Rainfall picking up in the states and that taking the overall deficit to normal but at this moment India needs more rain which should happen in all the parts not in one singular place like how it is happening in past few days in Mumbai.
Let me now give you data of the rainfall in different states of India. If you see the rainfall status in India there are 18 states which are under deficit rainfall. Of the all the deficit states most of them are the states which are agriculturally driven states. The other states that are having a normal or excess rainfall don’t run much of agriculture activities. States like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha and Gujarat which are deep into deficit rainfall have lot of dependency on Agricultural activities. UP has highest deficit of 49% and others states have average deficit rainfall of 20%. This way the Rice in Kharif crop looks very problematic. The states where we have normal rainfall also are problem because the rains are happening mostly in the Urban parts not in the rural parts where the rainfall is required the most. I am attaching a screenshot which will give you more insights on the different states rainfall data till yesterday. Region wise if you see apart from South India region no other region is doing well. Reason being the Bay of Bengal wing of Monsoon which covers Northern and Central India is doing very bad and the Arabian sea wing of Monsoon is doing good.
Now other most important point to look into is the Crop Sowing which is directly related to Rainfall. In the other screenshot all the details of Crop Sowing in different states is given. So, if you look at the overall crop sowing in India. I will only discuss about the Rice crop as it is the highest consumed cereal in our country. As on 5th July 2018 the required sowing of paddy crop should be 85.65 hectares but the actual value is at 67.25 which is 22% deficit. Hectare here is equal to 2.47 acres. So in acres India needed to hit the target area of 211.55 acres but presently it stands at 166.0 acres. That’s a shortfall of 45.44 acres of Land. More into numbers – Each acre on an average gives 850 kgs of rice. That means we are now at deficit of 15,640 kgs which will have big impact on the prices thus leading to higher food inflation.
We know that in the last week itself Govt had raised the MSP(Minimum Support Price) from 1550 to 1750 which is 200 rupees increase. This step by Govt is going to increase the prices which will take the inflation upwards and adding to that this deficit sowing of Crop resulting in less production will increase prices more taking inflation more higher. Certainly this will not help the economy and India needs good amount of rainfall in the places like UP, Bihar and the other states where the rain is required! I will wait till 10th of August to give my final verdict on the amount of shortfall we will have in this season. For now, I can only hope that it will start raining in Central India and Northern India too and not just in Mumbai!!!

Do you know there is something called as Mango Shower?

Mango Showers – Summer Rains!

Summer has hit India and its steaming hot in most parts of the Country. Last few days have seen some showers in Hyderabad and you might be wondering what these showers are. They are the mango showers.

Yes, the showers which gives you mangoes.

After the rains in last few days, you will see ripened mangoes appearing all over the place in next few days. These are the showers responsible for the growth of Mangoes. Mango Showers or mango rains are those which occur before pre-monsoon rainfall in the months of April thus are also called as Summer showers. The Mango fruit is mostly grown in the tropical climate which is why Mango Showers are seen in the parts of South and Southeast Asia, including India and Cambodia. In India the Mango showers are in full flow since last one week and are seen in the parts of the country. Normally these rains are to be seen in the coastal cities like Vishakhapatnam, Cuttack, Mumbai and others. Because these are the rains that help the Mangoes to grow quick they are called as Mango Showers. Only sad thing is that none can predict the Mango Showers.

Great, but why should it rain at the first place in the months of the April?

Answer is Simple – India is a tropical climatic conditions country and it is a peninsular. India is also one of the few countries which has got the chance of rain in almost every month. When you are peninsular country you are surrounded with water from three sides. Rain as we know happens only in the monsoon season in India. But the story is different in Summer, the reason for the rains in Summer is because of the winds coming from multiple directions.

How does it happen?

Till Mid-march the land surface of Indian peninsula doesn’t heat up much. So, land has lower temperature and sea has higher temperature and winds blow from land to sea. But after mid-march land starts heating up faster rising the temperature and suddenly sea appears cooler than land. So, wind blows from sea to land. This wind from sea has moisture and when it meets dry winds on lands they give rise to hailstorms and mango showers locally.

Mango showers to a limit is okay but not the ones that happened in Vontimitta near Kadapa few days ago that brought destruction and killed people. Such showers damage the same mango crop that they are supposed to bless mangoes with. We had enough mango showers this year. Looking at the weather conditions prevailing in the country it is predicted that these rains will last for one more week. Let’s hope that these rains end soon!!

So now that you know how Mangoes crop up, let’s see how Mangoes will taste this summer!

Why is Summer Hot and What are the reasons for Heat?

Summer is right round the corner and we are all feeling the heat.

Today in my Tuesday post I will talk about some interesting things about Summer. Summer as we all know is the hot season where the temperatures soar to the highest levels and our food habits suddenly change with juices and ice creams becoming our favorites. Summer always reminds and takes back to the good old school days where we have all had good vacation memories or schools closing down early from their usual timings. All because of the Heat!

Why is the Summer so Hot and what are the reasons for it?

If you say it is because of the Sun then you are half right. It is majorly because of Sun’s Movement. As Sun moves closer to one particular place the Sun Rays directly fall on that place and it results in high temperatures.

For example: Hyderabad is located at 17 degrees and 38 minutes North latitude and Sun as of now is located at 8 degrees and 11 minutes South latitude. That means Sun is located almost 17 degrees+8 degrees that is 25 degrees 49 minutes away from Hyderabad. The distance here I am taking

as comparison is the straight-line difference from one place to another. For better understanding you can check the image attached.

So how far is Sun from Hyderabad and when is it going to reach Hyderabad?

To know let us take two cities which are almost vertical to its placement for calculation. As I told you Hyderabad is located at 17*38’ North Latitude and other city that I am taking for calculation is Kalwakurthy which is located at 16*66’. Difference between two places is 0.72 degrees and in distance it is 90 kms. So, if 0.72 degree is 90 kms then 1 degree is equal to 125 kms and 1 minute (in terms of distance not time) is 2.08 km. Then if we multiply 125 kms to the distance between Sun and Hyderabad which is 25 degrees and 49 minutes it comes to 3125(25 degrees) + 102.83(49 minutes) totaling to 3227.83 kilometers. Thus, Sun is almost 3230 km away from Hyderabad and each day Sun is moving on an average 23 minutes which is 48 kilometers.

So, each day Sun moves 48 km closer to Hyderabad and after a study I found out that on May 9th at 12:12 PM Sun will be exactly on Hyderabad. That means on may 9th every year we will see the hottest day in Hyderabad.

On contrary when is coolest day in Hyderabad?

The coolest day is when Sun has to move farthest from Hyderabad. That means Sun will have to go the Southern most part and that is to the Tropic of Capricorn. When Sun moves to Tropic of Capricorn it will be located at 23.5 degrees South which is 40 degrees away from Hyderabad and in kilometers it is 5000 kms. So, on December 21st we will see the coolest day in Hyderabad. Cities which are farther than that will be more cooler than Hyderabad. For example lets take Delhi which is cooler than Hyderabad in winter. Its because Delhi is located at 28 degrees 35 minutes which is 6525 kms from Sun and that is why we see Delhi cooler than Hyderabad.

But that’s not the end.

Though it is the Sun’s movement which brings the heat to the land. It is not always the same and it’s also dependent on other factor which is wind flow direction. Generally, there are three directions from where wind blows in summer in Hyderabad. One is from Bay of Bengal, other from Arabian sea and the 3rd from the desert of Rajasthan in North. All the winds coming from Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal carry moisture and those are little less warm when compared to the winds travelling from northern part of India like Rajasthan. As they come through land they are much warmer. This wind patterns are the other reason to have Hot climate. So we normally see that due to the wind directions May 9th isn’t the hottest day but it will be in between May 15th to May 20th.

Conclusion to the Summer

To end this as Sun moves away from the Place the climate gets cooler. Starting from January if we see always January is the less-warmer month compared to February and February is less-warmer month compared to March, March is less hotter than April and April is less hotter than May and May is the hottest month when sun is right on top of Hyderabad and rest of India. This trend continues till the time it the rainy season in India. So, the warmest or hottest month in India will be May. Enter September the warmness slowly reduces and it gets cooler. That’s how we see September more-warmer than October and October more-warmer than November and November more-warmer than December. So, December will be coolest month in India.

So, as the March is approaching day of tomorrow, get ready to switch of you’re a/c, take out cotton clothes and get ready for lot of water melons, ice creams, juices and not to forget the Yummy Mangoes that appear right in the middle of the Summer!

Welcome to Summer!

India falls just 10 overs short to win the first match! Who is to be Blamed?

In today’s post I will talk about one significant reason, why we couldn’t win the Kolkata test match though we were in a perfect position to win after taking 7 wickets for just 75 runs!

Another cricket match and yet another disturbance which is the reason why we had to see no result in the India Vs Sri Lanka first test match. If it was the rain that was bothering Indians fans for long time, this Test match we have seen different problem and that is Bad Light Stopping the Play.

Yes, Kolkata is the right place to schedule test match in the month of November and the first two days rains were unseasonal and nobody can be blamed for it, but BCCI should be blamed for time that Match was scheduled to start.

It is known fact that Sun rises late and Sunsets early during the winters and that makes day shorter. This phenomenon is yearly and BCCI being the richest cricket club in the world should have planned to start the Match at least a half-n-hour early. I am not blaming authorities for the rain but surely for the late start.

Every day we were to stop the match well before play time and almost 40 mins before. The late start meant that India was deprived of winning the match. Because if the lost time was available at least on 3 days which were not rain affected days then we would’ve had another 20 overs of play for. Indian would have comfortably won the match.

Why was the Half-n-hour not available for India for 3 days?

The actual session timings for any test match are 2 hours per session or to bowl minimum 90 overs in a day. In India matches are scheduled to start at 9:30 and go on till 5:00 – 5:15 PM. Two breaks are given that is after 1st session Lunch for 40-45 minutes and Tea after 2nd session for 20 minutes. Over rates are usually 13-14 per hour and that’s how we get to play 7 hours giving 90 overs per day. Let’s look at the problem now!!

Sunrise time in Kolkata 5:50 AM

Sunset time in Kolkata 4:52 PM

The above times are the average time taken from 16th November to 20th November.

So, if sun sets in Kolkata at 4:52 and at a stadium which is surrounded with trees there is high possibility that light starts fading 20 minutes before Sunset. Which means it’ll be 4:30 and we lose 45 minutes of play. Likewise, in Hyderabad also we are seeing that actual Sunset time is at 5:52PM but it starts getting dark by 5:30 PM. So, looking at all these things how can one can even think that play will be possible till 5:15 unless he is a Fool.

What can be the Solution?

Kolkata sunrises at 5:50 AM and in Hyderabad sunrises at 6:25 AM. Instead of starting match at 9:30 AM and playing till 5:00 PM. If the match starts 30 mins early that is at 9:00 AM then there are high possibilities of closing the day by 4:30-4:45 PM maximum. But the problem is the viewers. If you start match at 9:00 AM it is very early for people to reach the stadium because the time that we follow is Indian Standard Time (GMT +5:30). Many people start their day based on the time and not on the sunrise or sunset. How do we tackle this?

What is the Solution 2.0?

The drastic step that India needs to take and make matches easier to conduct is to change the Standard time zone that we follow. Why not we have two standard time zones? Lets call them   Eastern Standard time and Western Standard Time.

Eastern Standard Time (EST) can be taken at 90 degrees longitude which passes near Kolkata and Western Standard Time (WST) at 75 degrees longitude which passes near Delhi. So, EST and WST border can be the present IST which is 82.5 degrees. That means there will be 15 degrees gap between both the time zones. 7.5 degrees Eastern so 82.5+7.5 is 90 and 7.5 degrees to Western so 82.5-7.5 is 75. EST will be followed by the right side of 82.5 and WST will be followed by left side of 82.5 degrees. What happens now is that people following EST will be 6 hours ahead of GMT instead of 5:30 hours as per IST whereas people following WST will be 5 hours ahead of GMT instead of 5:30 hours earlier. That will mean that India will have Two clocks, and everything will work per the respective clocks.

For Example:

As per Indian Standard Time Bombay Sunrise is 6:50 AM and Kolkata sunrise is 5:50 AM.

As per my proposed WST Bombay sunrise will be 6:20AM and as per my proposed EST Kolkata sunrise will be 6:20 AM. So if sun rises at Kolkata at 6.20AM instead of 5.50AM as per IST, we can start the match at 9AM and sun will set at 5.20PM instead of 4.50PM and we can have play till 5PM instead of calling it off at 4.30PM. Isn’t it a perfect solution? Think about it!

I feel that time is up for India to wake up and bring this change, because in India cricket is Worth Million Dollars and all the stakeholders part of this will have to leap forward and make this change happen.

Winter, Wheat and Weather Derivatives: Will we touch 100 million in 2018?

Winter, Wheat and Weather Derivatives: Will we touch 100 million in 2018?

9 out of 10 people when asked to name their favorite season will either choose Rainy or Spring or Summer. Winter is least preferred as it is biting cold and doesn’t appeal to many. Many of us want Winter to complete as soon as possible unknowing the fact that how important is Winter for Indian Economy and for the livelihood of crores of Indians. Today I will talk about why we should all keenly observe climatic conditions in Winter just like the way we are worried for high temperatures in Summer and High Rainfall in Rainy season.

Winter is the very important season as it is marks the start of Rabi crop.

Rabi crop is the one which starts in the month of October where the sowing of major crops happens. Rabi Crop falls in winter and it requires warm climate for germination of seeds and maturation and cold climate for the growth. The Major Rabi crops grown in winter are Wheat, Oat, Gram, Pea, Barley, Potato, Tomato, Onion, Oil seeds (like Rapeseed, Sunflower, Sesame, Mustard) etc. Each item listed are very much in demand in India and are consumed in heavy numbers. The highest consumed crop of the given is wheat. India’s wheat production is majorly dependent on the Winter and the production is seeing good increase year by year.

The total production in 2017 in India is 9,83,80,000 Metric Tonnes, thanks to good rainfall and good winter in the country last year. That is 9.83 Crore metric tonnes or 98.3 million metric tonnes. Will we touch 100 million this year? That’s the million-dollar question.

‘’For a Rabi season to give good crop it is most required that the temperatures before sunrise needs to be below 10 degrees and temperatures after sunrise should stay below 20 degrees’’

This kind of climatic pattern with normal rain will prove the best for Rabi Crops. At the time of harvesting it’s very important that crop should receive mildly higher temperatures which gives good harvest.

Not all the states in India produce wheat. The major part of wheat production comes from Northern Indian states. South Indian states are completely out of wheat production.

Top Wheat Producing States in India

  1. Uttar Pradesh
  2. Punjab
  3. Madhya Pradesh
  4. Haryana
  5. Rajasthan
  6. Bihar
  7. Gujarat
  8. Maharashtra
  9. West Bengal
  10. Himachal Pradesh

India’s overall production of wheat was just 10.3 million tonnes in 1966 which more than doubled to 23.2 million tonnes in 5 years by 1971. This was primarily due to green revolution. The increase in the transportation facilities has increased the consumption of wheat and by 2000 we were producing 76.3 million tonnes. By 2017 the figure touched 98.3 million tonnes.  The per capita consumption of wheat per household in 1966 was 8.5kg/month which went up to 17kg/month per household in 1971. The consumption went up to 31kg/month per household now. This is a tremendous increase mainly due to changing food habits.

The pizza, burger, roti and naan you eat are all wheat products and privatization has happened in wheat procurement and distribution as well as cultivation. Soon it will be linked to weather patterns and will be on Derivatives.

Future for Weather & Weather Derivatives in India!

Like we have seen much growth in sectors like Education, Banking, Software etc.; over the years. Weather is going to be next big thing and predicting weather will be the game changer.  The future looks bright and like we haven’t seen so many sub sectors years ago which are doing fantastically now even weather as a subject will grow and start a revolution.

This will also bring in the most awaited derivatives in the market and that is Weather Derivatives. People will then be able to trade on the Weather Futures & Weather Options. We will have newly designed contracts on weather temperatures, wind movements, production of the crops and many more. Like this a new dimension will be added to Indian Secondary market. These kinds of things are not easy to learn but are of huge importance to any Finance Student.

More on it in my future posts!!!

#Weather #Winter #India #LearningContinues

Cloud Burst in Hyderabad resulted in Heavy rains

Cloud Burst in Hyderabad

The topic of my Tuesday post came into my mind last night when I first heard about “Cloud burst in Hyderabad”! Till that moment I was under the impression that cloud bursts usually happen in hilly areas like Uttarakhand the deadliest one came in 2013 in Uttar Kashi. But Is it possible that a cloud burst like that can happen in Hyderabad? Yes, it is and yesterday we witnessed it. What we witnessed last evening was a rare phenomenon occurring probably once in 30-40 years!

So lucky are those who got drenched in the cloud burst and got affected by it. Statistically speaking the city on an average got 107.3mm rainfall. 100mm is minimum to be qualified for a cloud burst. Golkonda area that covers Upperpally where I reside, Mehdipatnam, Shaikh pet, Gachibowli areas got the highest ever rain this season of 132mm in a span of 3 hours. Pressure was oscillating between 1007 and 1004hpa and wind speed was around 5kmph on average and highest was 31kmph.

How did this cloudburst happen in Hyderabad?

Winds were coming from two directions. Western winds from Arabian sea were blowing towards Hyderabad and Easterlies from Bay of Bengal were also blowing towards Hyderabad. Till 2PM everything was fine. Suddenly at 2PM we noticed two sets of clouds that started coming from two different directions. First were a dry and warm clouds from Arabian sea were coming towards Hyderabad after raining in Kerala and Karnataka. These clouds had very less moisture. The second was a moist, dark clouds from Bay of Bengal were rushing towards Hyderabad after raining in AP and parts of Telangana. At 2.30 there was a real danger of they meeting and the actual meeting happened around Sangareddy, Tellapur, Kokapet and Kismatpur areas on out skirts of Hyderabad bordering Rangareddy and Medak districts.

Around 3.45PM

It became totally dark with Bay of Bengal clouds which were at a higher elevation covering Hyderabad. Within minutes they were joined by drier and less moist Arabian sea clouds in the above-mentioned areas. When the Bay of Bengal clouds that came from East started raining at 4PM the moisture was collected by the Arabian sea wing clouds that came from Western direction.

Thus, though it was raining no rain reached the ground. The cloud that was located below with less moisture was collecting the rain of the cloud above. After collecting sufficient moisture because of its warm temperature, it started pushing back the water back to the cloud above. Thus, the entire moisture went back to Bay of Bengal cloud and it became very heavy. This process took almost 30 minutes.

Around 4.30pm

The Arabian sea cloud transferred back all its moisture to the Bay of Bengal wing cloud located above and the cloud was loaded with water. This increased the mass of the cloud and the cloud suddenly pushed down by its own weight. That triggered a sudden heavy rain at around 4.45PM. Within few minutes the cloud came down rapidly due to heavy weight and collided with the Arabian sea wing cloud located below and that lead to the bursting of cloud leading to heavy downpour for almost 45 minutes till 5.30pm.

That is when wind started blowing and the cloud started moving. But within 30 minutes around 6.15PM another set of clouds came from Arabian sea and collided with this cloud triggering another wave of cloud burst that lasted another hour. Thus, in a span of less than 3 hours two major cloud bursts happened triggering a record rainfall of 132mm. This takes the total rainfall in Golkonda to 812mm this season compared to normal of 655mm. This is an excess of 24% and this is the best rainfall in 5 years for Hyderabad city.

 

Why did IMD not forecast it before?

Though cloud bursts are tough to predict, but if we carefully observe the changing temperature and pressure gradient along with wind patterns it’s not difficult to predict a cloud burst. Countries like US, UK, Japan and even China have been accurately predicting them for many years! But our IMD guys stay quiet till the event happens and then issue a warning of heavy rain for next 48 hours! And that forecast always goes wrong. IMD should wake up and spend more time in observations and accurate predictions. Otherwise a disaster like Uttarakhand 2013 can always happen!

What happened in Uttarakhand in 2013?

On 16th June 2013 monsoon arrived in Uttarakhand 14 days before time. When train goes full speed it gets difficult to control. Same way the monsoon was travelling at a high speed in Uttarpradesh and instead of going towards west the winds went Northwards and directly collided with Himalayas in Uttarakhand districts of Chamoli, Dehradun, Rudra prayag and Uttar Kashi districts.

The result was death of over 5700 people, the worst in the history in a long long time!

Look at the rainfall in these four districts because of the cloud burst.

  1. Dehradun 846.3mm
  2. Rudraprayag 617.4mm
  3. Uttarkashi 520.4mm
  4. Chamoli 488.3mm

The need of the hour is to upgrade our technology, train people in modern predictive techniques to avoid these kinds of disasters. If there was a warning at 2.30pm also yesterday that a cloud burst was going to happen in Hyderabad many people would have remained indoors and the lives of those 7-people lost, would have been saved!! This in short is the story behind Yesterday’s cloud burst!

Tropic of Cancer and Capricorn

What is Tropic of Cancer and Tropic of Capricorn?

Few basic things to know before we understand the concept of Tropic of Capricorn and Tropic of cancer.

  1. Earth revolves and rotates around the sun and Sun rotates in its own place.
  2. Earth is not plane surface but it is tilted. The tilt is 23.5 degrees.
  3. Earth completes its one full revolution in period of 365 days which we celebrate as new year.
  4. In ancient days these 365 days were recorded as 360 degrees or and 12 zodiac signs. Each zodiac sign stays for 30 days or 30 degrees. Now we have those 12 zodiac signs as 12 months.
  5. Sun rotates every day and that’s how we enjoy day/night for equal time.

Now let’s get back to the topic. Ever wondered why Zodiac sign names are given to the geographical structure of the earth. Of all 12 why only Cancer and Capricorn? Let me tell you why is it so…

Firstly, I will give the details of each Zodiac sign and the dates of the signs

Sl. NO

Zodiac Sign

Telugu Names

Dates

Degree Wise

1 Aries Mesha March 21 – April 19 0-29
2 Taurus Vrishabha April 20 – May 20 30-59
3 Gemini Mithuna May 21 – June 20 60-89
4 Cancer Karkataka June 21 – July 22 90-119
5 Leo Simha July 23 – August 22 120-149
6 Virgo Kanya August 23 – September 22 150-179
7 Libra Tula September 23 – October 22 180-209
8 Scorpio Vrishchika October 23 – November 21 210-239
9 Sagittarius Danu November 22 – December 21 240-269
10 Capricorn Makara December 22 – January 19 270-299
11 Aquarius Kumbha January 20 – February 18 300-329
12 Pisces Meena February 19 – March 20 330-360

 

Why only Cancer and Capricorn?

The total number of latitudes that are present are 180. 90 on the Northern hemisphere and 90 on southern hemisphere. 90 on one side is called as cancer and another side of 90 is Capricorn. 90th latitude from equator to southern hemisphere is called as Capricorn and 90th latitude from equator to northern hemisphere is called as cancer.  They are located at 23.5 degree because earth is tilted 23.5 degrees.

We know that Earth revolves and it takes 365 days to revolve 360 degrees. So, on 1 day it approximately moves 1 degree. So that’s how it completes one degree each day to complete 360 degrees in a year. In the same time when earth is moving 1 degree per day it also tilts 1 degree in approximately 4 days and like that when it completes moving 90 degrees it tilts 23.5 degrees in the Northern Side. On 20th March Sun is at 0 degrees at Aries and it is also Equinox when it is at 0 degrees in tilt.

So, let’s say it’s zero degrees in revolution and zero degrees in tilt. So, for everyday sun revolves 1 degree and for every 4 days it tilts 1 degree. Then on 90th day Sun would be at 90 degrees in revolution and sun would be at 23.5 degrees in tilt. From the table 90 degrees marks the start of Cancer so 23.5 degrees north is called Tropic of Cancer. So, 90 days later on 21st June Sun will be at Tropic of Cancer and it is called as Summer Solstice or Summer in Northern hemisphere.

From 21st June for the next 90 days earth revolves from 90 degrees to 180 degrees and the tilt happens in reverse direction from 23.5 degrees north towards equator. That is on 22nd September 3 months from 21st June Sun will be again at the equator and the tilt is back to zero. From 22nd September for the next 90 days up to 21st December sun moves 90 degrees from 180 degrees to 270 degrees. The tilt also happens in the reverse direction towards South and on 21st December it would have tilted 23.5 degrees at the rate of 1 degree in approx 4 days.

From the table, you can see that 270 degrees corresponds to Capricorn in sun signs so 21st December is called Tropic of Capricorn or summer Solstice in southern Hemisphere. From then on for next 90 days the tilt happens in reverse direction from 23.5 degrees south to equator and sun revolves from 270 degrees to 360 degrees. Again, on 21st March sun is back to where it was and has revolved 360 degrees. The tilt is also completed and the tilt is at 0 degrees now. So, Sun at zero and tilt also at zero is the starting of Aries.

That is how 23.5-degree North is called Tropic of Cancer and 23.5-degree south is called as Tropic of Capricorn.

Indian Monsoon Report Mid-July

Breaking News: Record rains, Indian Monsoon is outstanding, IMD as predicted rainfall is at 100%. These are few headlines that newspapers and media are using to describe Indian Monsoon.

Great, another year of good monsoon is it? I would wait and say not too early!
Because it is not at all what as it looks. Let me explain you it the way it is.

When you see it’s raining for last 2 days at Hyderabad, you would think this year monsoon has been fantastic. When you read in papers that India got 330 millimetres rainfall till now against the normal of 330mm you would feel satisfied that the country as a whole is at normal. But have you seen how it is distributed across the country?

Was it uniform or is there a imbalance? Let’s look at the deficits in region wise and state wise.
India 0%
North India +21%
Western India +4%
South India -8%
Eastern India -12%

One thing is very clear. India is not uniform. North and west have excess rains whereas South and East have less than normal rains.

Now lets see how they are distributed state-wise.

1. Andhra Pradesh +19%
2. Telangana +20%
3. Karnataka -19%
4. Kerala -25%
5. Tamilnadu -17%
6. Maharashtra 0%
7. Gujarat +26%
8. Madhya Pradesh -1%
9. Chattisgarh +1%
10. Orissa +5%
11. West bengal -20%
12. Assam -16%
13. Arunachal Pradesh -13%
14. North east states +5%
15. Bihar -4%
16. Jharkhand -24%
17. Uttar pradesh 0%
18. Uttarakhand +18%
19. Haryana +18%
20. Punjab +19%
21. Himachal Pradesh -4%
22. Jammu Kashmir +60%
23. Rajasthan +30%

Out of 23 states taken, 11 states have more than normal rainfall, 10 states have less than normal rainfall and 2 states have exactly normal rainfall. So, the rainfall is not equally distributed in all states. Some of these states are agrarian states and some are non-agrarian. Overall everything looks balanced but one needs to understand that its like half of the members of the family working, while other half is just wasting their time. That is never good for a family, likewise this is not good for the country. Some of the regions in these states are agriculturally very important. Lets look at the agricultural regions and how it is raining there.

Agriculturally important regions

1. Assam: paddy crop It has a deficit of -16%
2. West bengal: Paddy crop it has a deficit of -20%
3. Bihar: Paddy crop it has a deficit of -4%
4. Jharkhand: Paddy crop it has a deficit of -24%
5. Orissa: Paddy crop has a surplus of +5%
6. Coastal Andhra: Paddy crop has a surplus of +19%
7. Kerala: paddy crop it has a deficit of -25%
8. Maharashtra: Sugarcane and Cotton rainfall is normal at 0%
9. Uttar pradesh: Sugarcane and rice rainfall is normal at 0%

So, 5 out of 7 rice growing states have a deficit rainfall. Only Andhra and Orissa are good. This will affect the rice crop unless there is good rain in coming days.

Agriculturally not important states

1. Rajasthan +30%
2. Jammu kashmir +60%
3. Gujarat +26%
4. North east +5%
5. Tamilnadu -17%
6. Chattisgarh +1%
7. Telangana +20%

Most of the non agricultural states have got plenty of rainfall. That is the sad part. Telangana is not agriculturally important as it does not grow the food crops like rice or wheat in a sizable quantities. The other states are the states where rabi crop is more important and these states are Punjab and MP which grows wheat in winter and Tamilnadu which grows rice in November. so the monsoon is not as it looks. There is a deficit which we are not able to see. So, one needs to see it in the deeper way and understand the data. Let’s hope that the remaining period of monsoon is good and bridges all these gaps.

Monsoon Update as on 11th June

As on 11th June morning 8.30am monsoon covered parts of coastal Maharashtra. Now the northern limit of the monsoon passes through Kohlapur and Ratnagiri in Maharashtra but there after its very weak. In Karnataka it covered  60% of the area and its confined to only southern Karnataka and parts of north eastern Karnataka. It covers the entire Kerala and Tamilnadu and in Andhra it covers only Anantapur, Kadapa, Chittoor and Nellore districts. Conditions look favourable for the onset of monsoon in Mumbai by tomorrow. In  Mumbai its supposed to reach by 9th June and already its 2 days late.
Monsoon is also expected to hit Telangana by tomorrow. Already its 4 days late in Hyderabad but a plenty of pre monsoon showers are keeping the city cool and rain fall total in excess.

Following is the amount of rain received from June 1st to 10th June in different places in Telangana.

 

1st June to 10th June
Place Actual Rainfall Normal Rainfall
Adilabad 141mm 37mm
Hakimpet 120mm 35mm
Hyderabad 110mm 22mm
Khammam 75mm 28mm
Mahboobnagar 32mm 34mm
Medak 5mm 32mm
Nalgonda 75mm 32mm
Nizamabad 51mm 28mm
Ramagundam 28mm 23mm
Warangal 6mm 28mm
From the data it is clearly visible that except Warangal and Medak every other place has received excess rainfall. This is because of the plenty of pre monsoon showers. Latest trends show that Monsoon has reached Kurnool and is at the border of Kurnool. Expecting the Monsoon to reach Hyderabad tomorrow midnight!
The next 10 days update on rain will be on 21st June with the details of the next 10 days rainfall.