GST has set in. Impact will be visible in next few days. Markets will look at it with some concern. FMCG is the sector everyone will look at. ITC is the stock to look for and buying on ITC kind of stock is recommended. ITC has a portfolio that ideally suits to GST and one needs to keep that in mind.
On NIFTY front, 9570 which was the support for last 1 month before it was decisively broken will act as resistance now. NIFTY has to cross that level to go up further. On the downside 9450 will be the support and we can see NIFTY gravitating between the range. Start of the first week of July and no cues what so ever to look at this market. Thats sad!!
June series is done and dusted and forgotten. The focus today shifts to GST which is rolling out tomorrow. Parliament will go on a special session from 10.30pm tonight and exactly at the strike of the midnight hour, Parliament attended by President, Vice President, Prime Minister, Council of ministers and members of Parliament will usher in the biggest tax reform of this century as well as that of independent India.
Market will be worried on the impact of GST and how it will impact the economy.
Though there will be hiccups initially, we are well on our way for 10,000. Half of 2017 will be over today and the 2nd half will be approached with nervousness. World markets are in red and all these worries and uncertainty will weigh on NIFTY and don’t be surprised if there is a correction today. Infact the opening itself will be a gap down and will happen close to 9450 level. 9400 will be tested during the course of the day. Today is the weekend as well as end of the month as well as end of 1st half of the year. So, there wont be much inclination to buying and some motivation to profit booking. That will impact the NIFTY today and so its a day to sit and watch the “Red” in the market and its a red flag day for any kind of buying.
Expiry day. The market set up is clearly driven by the positions created. 9500 is the important mark to take a clue of market’s direction. Most of the day NIFTY might be between 9450 to 9550 but there is a big move possible either on upside or on down side post lunch. In May series on the expiry day NIFTY opened at 9384 and closed at 9509. That’s more than the 100 point gain on a single day! Will this be repeated this series?
Though the chances are low the possibility cant be ruled out! If expiry happens above 9510 then its a positive series else its going to be a negative series. NIFTY will collapse if 9480 is broken and 9550 is emerging as strong resistance. Maybe the puts shorted at 9600 strike for 90 rupees would keep the nifty below 9500 and so will be the call writers at 9500 now! I would stick my neck out and say its going to be a negative series with NIFTY expiring below 9500!
Market Setup – 28th June –
Today is the penultimate day of June series. NIFTY finally broke that 9575 to 9678 range that it was in from 26th May, yesterday. Everyone was expecting a break out but what we saw was a break down. NIFTY broke on the down side and NIFTY ended at 9510 yesterday down from that range. Today the opening will be below 9500 at the crucial level of 9480. Yesterday I was talking about holding 9480-9520 level and that level becomes crucial again.
Yesterday shorting on calls started aggressively at 9500 with many traders seeing the bearish sign wanting to eat the 9500 premium also. Now many traders have eaten the 9700, 9600 premium and now they are eyening 9500. 9700 premium fell from 11 rupees to 2 rupees yeterday, 9600 call premium from 40 rupees to 9 rupees! What is shocking is 9500 premium which was 110 rupees at yesterday’s start fell to 42 rupees by closing. Traders are still eyeing this premium and are heavily shorting it. This resulted in calls being more than puts for the first time in 6 months and put call ratio is now at 0.98 down from 1.01 seen yesterday. Sure bearish sign.
Today could be the day for 9480-9520 battle and heavy shorting will be seen at 9500 call and that 42 rupees is something that people would eye on. But going contra by shorting 9600 put at 90 rupees is not a bad idea but for that you need to have high risk appetite. Otherwise buying calls/puts chasing momentum and risking premium loss is the only option left!
Trade Setup – Today
Expiry week. No cues fundamentally, except the Modi-Trump meeting which for very near term is meaningless. So, its the technical’s and Expiry moves that will move the NIFTY.
NIFTY is likely to open flat at 9570 levels and the puts and call will drive the market.
The action on calls shifted to 9600 calls indicating the expiry zone getting capped at 9620 levels. The put buying is happening at 9500 and put selling at 9400 levels. That will keep the fulcrum around 9500 or 9480 zones. Will there be a turnaround today and tomorrow or will NIFTY slowly continue its downward trend. By 12 noon the picture will be clear!