Category Archives: Market Setup

Trade Setup/Market Setup

Visit this column every morning on weekdays to know how Indian markets will fare and read the predictions on market behavior. Nifty, Sensex and Bank Nifty and many more important news will be discussed in a short 200-300 word post. Predictions are all based on my own learning and perceptions. The information posted should not be used by others for wrong reasons.

Happy Investing!


Market Trade Setup 10th April #NIFTY

Finally, there was a rally in the last hour yesterday much to the relief of many, who were doubting whether Nifty would cross 11600 or would settle down below that but somehow we managed to cross 11600 and went up all the way to 11685 levels and closed almost at the high point of the day at 11671. Globally, however, things are not looking that great. US markets corrected close to 200 points and this is on the worry that came from IMF which has cut the global growth forecast and that seems to be having a major impact across all markets. Added to this is the Trump tweet which talked about imposing trade sanctions, this time on European Union. Asia is also negative today mainly on the IMF growth cut with both Hong Kong and Japan showing 150 points cut each.

On the domestic front, the campaigning for the first phase of elections finally came to an end and a positive close was mainly due to the positive outlook given for NDA that it might come back to power. India Today was the last channel to come up with the forecast and they gave a figure of 263-283 seats for NDA and surprisingly in UP BJP might get 42 seats which was much better than 20 plus seats forecasted 2 months ago. BJP is also doing well in Maharashtra with 40 seats almost the same as what they got last time. The other news today is going to be the IIP and the CPI data that will be released for the month of Feb and March. CPI for March is expected to be around 3% and if it comes in that range it will be a good trigger to look at another rate cut in the June policy of RBI.

On the derivatives front, there has been some selling in the Futures market in the last 2 days which has brought the Nifty futures long positions to 67% from the highs of 71%. This is in a way good as now there are 1/3rd shorts in the system. The options also has seen some trimming of Put call ratio and the Nifty put-call ratio right now stands at 1.42 which is a good level considering that tomorrow is the weekly expiry. Yesterday 11600 put added 5.3 lakh positions and that established 11600 put at the highest open interest which means we have firm support at 11590 levels. On the call side, 11850 call added 6.4 lakh positions and 11800 call has the maximum open interest followed by 11850 call. So, Nifty now has the legs to go up to 11800 by tomorrow. The range is now 11600-11800 mark.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

The positions that you were holding for last 2-3 days finally would have got closed yesterday as Nifty went all the way crossing 11680 mark and that you would have made a 20-80 point profits depending on where you have taken positions. But what is important is that a futures trade is closed, which is very important for small traders. Today the IMF news will give a dip at the opening and Nifty might open around 11620-11650 mark and that also is the support zone. Any correction will bring it to 11590 and Nifty should find a support there. So, it is better to go long at around 11600-11630 mark with 11680-11700 as the target. You can otherwise keep a 50-70 point profit target which can be anytime this week

Market Trade Setup 9th April #Nifty

BJP manifesto took the market down, down to 11550 zones and later recovered to cross 11600 mark and close above that. I was talking about Nifty going to 11580 levels yesterday if the manifesto is not liked by the market and it has happened. If a 11800 close yesterday would have catapult Nifty to 13000 by June, it has now taken away that possibility and we could now see a nervous move ahead and it might want another good news coming from anywhere before it starts to resume the journey again. Globally things were not so great and Dow closed 90 points lower on the forecast that Q1 results for the US are not likely to be in the expected range. Asia is flat to negative with both Japan and Hong Kong down 50 points each and only Singapore and Taiwan are in a mild positive zone.

Coming to domestics yesterday was a clash between BJP manifesto vs Congress’ NYAY. Where Congress focused on the bottom 5% of poor with 72,000 per annum cash transfer, BJP focused on populist schemes aimed at farmers. A slew of measures like a loan at zero interest, farm pensions and cash transfers are going to put pressure on the fiscal health and was not liked by the market that much. Added to this is the pressure coming from Brent crude with crossed 71 dollars now and trading at 71.1 dollars. Rupee also lost 45 paise yesterday and now has reached 69.67 per dollar and all the good work was done to bring it to 68.3 lost out in just 2-3 sessions. Nifty has 20 dma at 11470 mark and that is going to be strong support even if there is some fall happening today. So, we need to look at 20 dma carefully.

On the derivatives front, there was a different reaction in the futures and options market. While there was selling in the day but buying resumed by afternoon in the futures market, the options market has shown one-way traffic and that is the demand for the calls. That has brought down the Nifty put-call ratio from 1.61 to 1.50 and there was the closing of positions seen on many strikes on the put side. 11600 put has the highest open interest at 12.6 lakh while 11500 put also has 12.2 lakh open interest. This is very close so if 11560 doesn’t hold today then we can see Nifty going to 20 dma of 11470 mark. On the call side, 11700 call added 10.7 lakh positions yesterday and it has the highest open interest now at 21.6 lakh. so 11720 is a strong resistance for this week’s expiry. So, unless there is fundamental news, till Thursday expect Nifty to be in 11560-11720 range with a danger of Nifty slipping to 11470 on ant bad news.

What is the Nifty call for the day?
A flat Asia means we will also open in the flat zone between 11600-11620 mark and 11560 continues to be very strong support. Good news might take Nifty to 11680-11710 zones and if that happens, exit positions and book mild profits. Your positions are stuck for almost 3 days now and you need an exit route and let’s hope that this exit route comes today. If things turn to worse and Nifty corrects to 11500 mark, patiently, as things are looking more likely on the upside than on downside in the next 1-2 weeks. No fresh positions to be taken today. 

Market Trade Setup 8th April #Nifty

The crucial period of election finally begins. There was a pre-election rally for 4-5 weeks starting from the beginning of March on the news of possible victory for BJP. Now we have actually entered the 6 weeks of election period where at the end of every phase market will get some cues on the way things are going. Pre-election rally brought Nifty from 10800 to 11700 mark, which is a 900 point gain and will this 6 weeks add another 900 points to take it to the targeted 12500 mark needs to be seen. On the global front, things were flat on Friday with Dow Jones closing almost flat gaining 40 points. The good news coming in was the US jobs data which came better than expected figures and the impact will be shown today. Asia is green except Japan and Singapore which are in the mild red. Hong Kong is the best performing market with 150 point gain.

On the domestic front, the real election period starts this week with first phase polling happening on 11th April. But the more important news is the BJP manifesto which releases at 11 AM today and market will be carefully looking at it to see what would be BJP’s response to Congress promise of 72,000. If BJP doesn’t do anything that spoils the fiscal health but gives something to everyone, then we can see a big rally happening. In other news, this week also kick starts the crucial Q4 and annual results of companies and today is the starting day with Delta Corp coming with its Q4 numbers. The net sales are likely to be above 200 Cr and a PAT of 50 Cr plus. The bad news is from Brent Crude which crossed 70 dollars and now trading at 70.7 dollars. This could start putting pressure on India now.

On the derivatives front, this series is seeing an unusually high premium and this is bound to happen as weekly options were introduced which led to a spike in volumes and cost of holding also has gone up. Friday the Nifty futures premium surged to 90 points from 76 points as there was buying happening with the upward movement of Nifty. The overall long positions have now reached 71% and we are approaching a danger zone where there are fewer shorts and that could trigger a big fall on a slight correction as there are no shorts to be covered. On the options front, The Nifty put call ratio went up to 1.61 from 1.52. 11600 put added 14 lakh positions on Friday and now it has the highest open interest for this week’s expiry followed by 11500 put. On the call side, 11700 call added 3.5 lakh positions and it also has the highest open interest on call side followed by 12000 call. So, for this week’s expiry 11570-11760 are the markers on upside and downside. 

What is the Nifty call for the day?

A mixed Asia means we are also likely to open flat between 11650-11680 zone and till the manifesto comes out Nifty might not cross the 11680-11700 zone and market has kept 11700 and 12000 as the number one and number two in open interests. So, if there is positivity and this fundamental news of BJP manifesto breaks the 11760 barrier then we could start moving towards 11800 and above. But if that doesn’t happen then we might correct to 11600 zone and might find some support there. You already have a position taken around 11600-11630-11680 zone and wait for it to go to 11750 mark to exit the position. For today I suggest no trade and only wait for the position to reach a profitable position before going for new positions. 

Market Trade Setup 5th April #Nifty

We were talking about 12000 yesterday, thinking that we had a potential to go past 11800 this week but the monetary policy that came yesterday put cold water on the market with a 25 bps cut vs the expectation of 50 bps and Nifty is below 11600 now which makes 12000 looks very far. Globally things are looking bright with Dow showing another day of handsome growth of 130 points and this was on the back of Trump telling the media that there would be a trade agreement between US and China as early as next 1 month. Dow would have gone up further if not for the disappointment from the Q1 of Tesla and Boeing further going into problems when the report from the investigation of Ethiopian Airlines says that pilots were not responsible for the air crash. Most of the Asian markets like Hong Kong, China and Taiwan are shut due to their local festival, Japan which is trading is in mild green.

Coming to domestics, the big news yesterday was the RBI monetary policy statement, which gave a 25 bps cut bringing down the repo rate to 6% and thought it was a positive move, the tone of the policy and the amount of the cut were disappointing to the market. The market was expecting a 50 bps cut where they saw repo at 5.75% vs inflation of 3.8%. But what we got was 25 bps which was already priced in, and there is no further scope for the market to go up. The tone of the policy was expected to be dovish but MPC kept the tone neutral where it raised some concerns going forward. First is the nature of Govt, which means RBI was not 100% sure that Modi Govt will be re-elected again. Second is the monsoon worries and drop in rural income primarily coming from the below average rainfall predicted by sky met. Nifty fell post the policy but what fell more was Rupee which lost 74 paise on a single day and now it’s back to 69 plus levels.
On the derivative front, there is some positivism as the Nifty corrected to 11580 levels. There is a huge premium of 70 plus points for Nifty futures now and a lot of long positions were taken on the Nifty Futures. The overall long positions on Nifty stands at 70%. The put-call ratio also went up to 1.54 from 1.42. On a day when Nifty fell 40 points, PCR and long positions going up is a positive sign. Yesterday also saw a good turnover and we again went to 22.3 lakh crore and now weekly expiries are also generating 20 plus lakh crore volumes. For this week’s expiry of 11th April, 11500 put has the maximum open interest on put side followed by 11400 put. So, there is a chance of Nifty correcting to 11400 odd marks in case of any negative news. On the call side, 11800 call has the highest open interest followed by 11700 call. So, 11500-11800 will be the range for this week and trades have to be taken in that range.
What is the Nifty call for the day?
We will start another day on a positive note above 11600 mark and might open around 11610-11630 range and 11680 offers the first resistance. You would have taken positions around 11680 mark they come to no profit no loss zones. You have an option to exit and take fresh positions when Nifty drops to lower levels. Today is a trading day only if Nifty takes support at 11600 mark. At that point, you can go for another long position with 11660-11680 as the target. If Nifty drops below 11600 after open then stay away from the market.

Market Trade Setup 4th April #NIFTY

All time high achieved yesterday and that too for just 10 seconds. I think it is the shortest all time highs that is possible in any market. 11760 was the previous all time high and Nifty went to 11761 and then fell. The fall was more in the last one hour of trade primarily due to the sky met forecast on this year’s monsoon. The global markets were positive yesterday with Dow Jones going up for the 5th day and closed in mild green of 40 points. Asian markets are in green, except Hong Kong which is down by 40 points while Japan is up 60 points and all other markets on mild red. Brent Crude however did not go past 70 dollars and has corrected a bit to 69.3 dollars now and the Rupee is going strong and strengthened 32 paise and closed at 68.42 to dollars and now we have a realistic chance of Rupee going to 67 zone.

On the domestic front, the technicals played out in the morning as there was a profit taking that happened as soon as Nifty crossed 11760 zone. But what has triggered a bigger fall was the forecast from sky met for this year’s monsoon which said that monsoon this year will be below normal. Sky met forecast this year’s monsoon to be 93% of LPA which is a 7% deficit from the normal. June is expected to be the worst month with a deficit of 23%, July will have a deficit of 9%. June and July are the sowing months so this can have a major impact on the agricultural production this year. August is likely to be 2% excess while September is likely to be 1% deficit. There was a big correction post this news on the fear of a slow down induced by a bad year. Another news is the credit policy announcement and at 11.45 we will know whether its going to be 50 bps cut or 25 bps cut. 

On the derivatives front, yesterday saw the volumes dropping a bit compared to previous expiries and the turn over on the penultimate day to expiry was under 10 lakh crore at 9.8 lakh crore and we have to see how much we can expect today. In the futures market however the premium on Nifty is very high compared to the average and we have a 76 point premium on Nifty. The Nifty put call ratio in the options market however dropped to 1.42 from 1.52 from the beginning of the day. On put side yesterday there was a huge unwinding of positions and maximum unwinding was at 11700 put that saw 4.1 lakh positions unwinding and 11600 put saw next highest unwinding of 2.3 lakh positions. As a result 11500 put has the highest open interest today and 11600 put is closely behind. On the call side 11800 call added 8.4 lakh positions while 11750 call added 6.7 lakh contracts and we have 11800 call as the big resistance. 

What is the Nifty call for the day?

I had talked about Nifty falling to 11680 zone and a fresh position being initiated there. Yesterday Nifty fell much below that and its now at 11640 zone. If you have taken a long position between 11660-11680 you would be sitting on a minor loss. Today, we might have a good opening in 11660-11690 zone and immediately your positions will be in mild profits. There is a resistance coming in at 11760 which is the all time high and RBI credit policy at 11.45 will decide whether 11760 will be taken out on the upside and we will go to 11800-11810 zone. Otherwise if there is a disappointment we could correct to 11580 levels. So, it is better to have a target of 11750-11770 and exit the positions as soon as Nifty reaches there. This market is on its way to 12000 mark but its not going to be one way traffic. It will be a one step back and two step forward method to reach 12000 mark

Market Trade Setup 3rd April #Nifty

Yesterday markets went as per the predictions at every step. I said Nifty will take support at 11650 and will be facing resistance at 11720-11740 zone and close in the range. It turned out to be exactly the same. The moral of the story is, whenever the market gets predictable for many, it changes its texture. Are we in the consolidation phase that could change the texture of the market needs to be seen. Globally things look stable as US market consolidated a bit after a 300 point rally and ended 80 points in red. Asian markets also opened in the mildly red territory this morning but as the day is progressing, Asia is turning greener. So, we have Japan up 150 points and Hong Kong up 250 points and all the other Asian markets are also in green. Brent is now the reason for worry as it is almost approaching the psychological mark of 70 dollars, trading at 69.7 dollars now. Rupee, however, is on the downside is at 68.7 to a dollar now.
On the domestic front, the big news that came was the Supreme court judgement that struck down the April 12th circular issued by RBI. Now the companies need not be dragged to IBC on default of over 90 days and a loan will not be called as a stressed asset if there is a delay in the payment between 1 to 89 days. This is a major setback to RBI and when RBI is discussing monetary policy, we need to see how much impact it will have on their decision. On the monetary policy front, there is a 100% probability of rate cut with 80% chance for 25 bps cut and 20% chance of a 50 bps cut. Coming back to Supreme Court judgement, RBI now has only two options. One is to re-approach the SC with a review petition and the second is to come up with a fresh draft by dropping some controversial clauses that were added earlier. Apart from that we also had an election manifesto by Congress and it failed to build up the required buzz and ended as a 1-hour event.
On the derivatives front, there was a pick up in the long positions in Nifty Futures again and the long positions in Nifty Futures have jumped to 68% again. The premium is also healthy at 56 points and all this show some bullishness. On the options front, the Nifty put-call ratio went to 1.52 from 1.48 on the demand for short puts. 11700 put added maximum open interest yesterday of 4.2 lakh positions and thus 11700 put now has maximum open interest for tomorrow’s expiry indicating that 11660-11680 is very strong support. On the call side, 11900 call added the same 4.2 lakh positions and 11900 call is slightly ahead of 11800 call as the strike with maximum open interest. So, we now have a situation where today and tomorrow we can gravitate between 11680-11820 and if by chance we get a 50 bps rate cut then we can see Nifty going past 11880 mark. For monthly expiry however 11500 put and 12000 call have the highest open interest.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

Yesterday, you would have exited your positions for a 60-70 point profit and today we will have a positive start with Nifty opening in 11720-11740 range which is a strong resistance as of now. Are we going to see an all-time high today or immediately after the policy announcement at 11.45am tomorrow needs to be seen. Nifty has the resistance zone extending up to 11770 levels and till the time that is taken out decisively, we cannot move towards 11850 mark this series. Otherwise, this series expiry will be around 11800 mark. So, my call for the day would be, if you get a dip after the morning highs, you can get into another long position between 11680-11720 with 11760-11800

Market Trade Setup 2nd April #NIFTY

We almost made an all time high in the last hour of trade yesterday but after touching 11735 levels Nifty came crashing down to 11670 levels and the wait for the all time high still continues. If we look at the global cues there is a huge amount of risk on with Dow gaining over 300 points last night and Dow conquered 26,000 mark yesterday. I now wonder where has the yield inversion gone! Certain old principles have started to become irrelevant today. We need to see them more before concluding anything. Asian markets are also on the mild green today with Japan and Hong Kong up by over 100 points and others in 0.2 to 0.6% gain territory. Big worry is coming from Brent Crude which has now crossed the 69 mark and trading at 69.35 dollars. Now it matches Rupee which is at 69.15 to dollar.

On the domestic front, the big news is the much awaited Supreme court judgement on the 12th Feb 2018 circular of RBI where the definition of NPAs has been changed dramatically. For example if your loan payment due date is 30th March and if you dont pay on that date, by 31st March your loan will be classified as NPA. Previously you would be given 90 days time before declaring it as NPA. Now the definition of NPA is changed and it is made 1 day after the due date and before it was at anytime till 90 days and banks were giving 90 days for delayed payment of the interest due, before terming it as NPA. Let’s see what SC has to say on this. Companies have taken RBI to court on this and the judgement of SC will be carefully watched today. 

Other domestic news that will affect the market is the on going election and Rahul Gandhi’s decision to file nominations from Wayanad in Kerala on 4th April. Wayanad will go to polls in the 3rd phase elections on 23rd April. If we look at Wayanad it was a safe Congress seat in the past with Congress getting 50% vote in 2009 and nearest rival CPI getting 31%. BJP at that time got 4% vote. In 2014 Congress won the seat but the vote share fell to 41% and CPI came close second at 39% and BJP vote share rose to 9%. This time NDA fielded a local BDJS candidate and this is one seat where Hindus are in minority and it is accused by BJP that this is the reason why Rahul chose this seat. Another event is the Congress party launching its manifesto at 11.45am today and everyone will look for what he says on NYAY scheme. 

Coming to derivatives, yesterday saw a see-saw action on Nifty futures and options due to volatility seen in the market yesterday. From 43 points the Nifty futures premium went up to 76 points but the Nifty put call ratio remained almost constant at 1.48 vs 1.49 seen at the beginning of the day. That means market is playing long on Futures but betting on short calls more in the options. For this week’s expiry, 11500 and 11600 put almost has same open interest of 11.8 lakh and 11.9 lakh respectively making it difficult to find the bottom. Initially however 11570 will offer a strong support. On the call side 11700 call has the highest open interest of 14 lakh positions and 11800 also has open interest of 12.5 lakh. So, as of now 11740 is a resistance and if that is taken out then we can see 11810 is possible, which is an all time high. 

What is the Nifty call for the day?

Yesterday if you have taken position in the evening around 11660-11680 levels then I would suggest you to exit for a minor profit around 11720-11740 range. Yesterday was difficult to trade as you would not have really got a chance to take a position. Today there can be a correction also to 11570-11600 mark but do not enter the market at this position because we do not know how fundamentals will pan out and as the open interest is suggesting we can even touch 11480 mark also if things get worse. So, for today the strategy is to hope that we find support at the opening levels of 11650-11680 mark and Nifty goes to 11720-11740 levels and close somewhere within the range. Exit as soon as you hit the 11720-11740 range.

Market Trade Setup April 1st #Nifty

Start of the new Financial year and that starts on a bumper note with so many cues looking very positive. First talking about the global cues US markets have closed positive gaining more than 200 points and that seems to be like last year’s news. For today, the bumper news comes from China, where the March PMI numbers comes at 50.5 vs 3 year low seen in February of 49.2. Any figure less than 50 is a contraction in the economy and figure more than 50 is expanding. After contracting for 3 months. China’s manufacturing sector is finally expanding and that is a great news. All the Asian markets are in green with more than 1% gain and markets like Hong Kong and Japan are up more than 500 points. Brent crude is also stuck at 68 dollars and Rupee appreciated a bit on Friday and that is another good news. 

On domestic front, the new Financial year starts off on many changes happening to the banking system. First is the great news of Dena bank and Vijaya bank’s merger with Bank of Baroda and the combined entity will now be called Bank of Baroda and it will have around 10,000 branches now. Re-construction of the new entity upto Regional managers level is done and in the next 6-9 months the integration of ranks below RMs will be completed. Another change that will come into play today is the new regulation that kicks in today which caps any bank’s exposure to any group cannot be more than 25% and to any company more than 20%. Example for a group is Reliance or Tata or HUL etc while that of a company is Asian paints. Finally the Auto sales numbers for March are due and we are looking at a slow down in sales across the 2 wheelers and 4 wheelers. 
On the derivatives front, April series will kicked off on a mixed note on Friday with some selling seen in Nifty futures. Nifty Futures which were very high at 90 points at the beginning of the day came down to 53 points by the end of the day and the overall long positions that were 69% at the beginning of the day was at 67% at the end of the day. The Nifty put call ratio also corrected to 1.49 from 1.58 levels with which we started the series. For the April monthly series 11500 put added 4.6 lakh positions and it has the highest open interest of 21.3 lakh positions. On the call side 12000 call added 2.2 lakh positions and it has the highest open interest of 22.6 lakh positions. But for the weekly expiry of 4th Aril 11500 put and 11700 call has highest open interest indicating that 11760 could be the resistance and 11460 will be a strong support on down side. 
What is the Nifty call for the day?

On Friday I suggested you not to trade and rightly so Nifty opened around 11620 range and closed at the same level and intraday it went to 11580 levels indicating that the whole day it was in a 40-50 point range making it impossible for you to enter and make money. But today is a different day because of China data and how Asia is reacting to it. But India will not profit that much from this China’s gain, but still there might be some kind of a positive opening and it might be between 11650-11680 levels and then we will be in a touching distance from 11700 mark. Under this conditions, it is better to wait for a minor dip towards 11650 levels and then take a long position there with 11720-11740 as the target for this week. 11760 level is the all time high and today or tomorrow or on Thursday we will conquer that and we might make an all time new high this week itself.

Market Trade Setup 29th March #NIFTY

Today marks the start of the first series of the new financial year 2019-20 and the last trading of the present financial year of 2018-19. This is a transition day and yesterday we ended the March series on a very high note. I was always telling you that if Nifty manages to cross 11520 it can go all the way up to 11580-11600 mark and yesterday we have seen a high of 11588 before closing at 11570 mark. Global cues are also positive as the bond yields went up in the US and the fears of recession have temporarily taken a back seat. Dow gained over 90 points and today all the Asian markets are in green with Hong Kong up 150 points and Japan up 200 points. Crude is only the point of worry as it crossed 68 dollars and trading at 68.1 dollars now.

Yesterday was the March series expiry and we have closed at 777.5 points higher and this is the second best series we had from the time Modi Govt took over in May 2014. The January series of 2015 was the best with a gain of 778.3 points. The difference is just 0.8 points and thus we can see that the market has gone to the time when Modi took over as the Prime Minister. The next best news is turnover. Yesterday saw a turnover of 22.75 lakh Crore which is the highest we have seen from the time the options markets started in India in 2005. Now we are a truly 20 lakh plus crore turnover market and March 2019 series can be a benchmark for the future. This was mainly on the FII investments and March saw the highest FII investment in the last many months. 

What to expect from the April series?

After a fantastic March we are now focussing on the April series. April series has many fundamentals to look for and top of that are the 4 out of 7 phases of polling coming in April month itself. Second is the Q4 and Annual results of the companies that would start coming after 10th April and that will have a telling impact on many stocks as well as Nifty. Added to that we have a very important trigger of bi-monthly monetary policy coming on 4th April which also happens to be the weekly expiry for Nifty. This monetary policy is expected to give a rate cut of 25 to 50 bps and market would be keenly watching for it. Plus we will also have the usual CPI and WPI inflation data as well as the IIP data coming in for February and January respectively and that will show which direction GDP will move.

On the technical side, the April series opens on a heavy note with 69% long positions which is the highest in 2019. The rollovers are also higher for Nifty and they came at 67.6% vs the three month average of 65% and Bank Nifty rollovers are even higher coming at 71%. Coming to the options the Nifty put-call ratio starts at 1.58 which is a fair value to start so we will not have an immediate fear of fall. The markers for April look very interesting indeed. On the put side 11500 put has the highest open interest followed by 11300 and 11200. So, the first level of support will come in the range of 11380-11410. On the upside 12000 call has the highest open interest and no other open interests are closer to that. That means we can see Nifty touching 12000 mark this series itself and that is heartening, and this happen we will be in the all time high zones for Nifty. 

What is the Nifty call for the day?

April will start on a decent note with opening happening between 11570-11600 and first resistance will come at 11620-11650 mark and 11550-11570 coming in as a support. Today is the first day of the series and the first day will usually be green. You have made profit yesterday as the targets of 11580-11600 have been reached for the positions you took below 11500 in 11460-11490 zones. If you have not exited then you can exit today if Nifty crosses 11600 mark. I would not suggest a fresh position to be initiated today and afternoon might see some volatility. Even if you lose out on a chance to make money today, enjoy the last working day of this financial year by counting your profits rather than putting them in the market.