Category Archives: Market Setup

Trade Setup/Market Setup

Visit this column every morning on weekdays to know how Indian markets will fare and read the predictions on market behavior. Nifty, Sensex and Bank Nifty and many more important news will be discussed in a short 200-300 word post. Predictions are all based on my own learning and perceptions. The information posted should not be used by others for wrong reasons.

Happy Investing!

#SriramSpeaks

Market Trade Setup 25th April #NIFTY

Expiry day arrives and it comes on the back of 150 point rally, and I was always talking about it in my posts for the last 2 days. Market sensed the mood of the nation in favour of BJP and that gave it a big push. The resistance level of 11700-11720 is broken and now 11700-11850 territory is open for Nifty now. The US markets last night was flat to negative with Dow closing 20 points down and the Asian markets today looks mixed. The first quarter GDP of South Korea comes at just 1.8% which is much lower than expected and that has influenced other markets and except Hong Kong, all the other Asian markets are down. Brent Crude is still stuck at 74 dollar mark and trading at 74.4 dollars.

Coming to the domestics, the heat of election campaign is picking up as the campaigning for the 71 seats of 4th phase reaches the peak and the nominations for the last phase going on. Modi will hold a huge road show in Varanasi today and he will be filing his nomination from there tomorrow in the presence of many NDA leaders. On the Q4 front, the mixed trend of results continues with India bulls housing finance, Bharti Infratel coming up with weak results while the star performer was Ultra tech cement which came up with fantastic numbers and M&M financials also reporting good numbers. Today Biocon, Maruti Suzuki, Rallis India and Tata steel are going to come up with their Q4 results and we need to watch them carefully.

On the derivatives front, expiry day is here and the rollovers to May are very high now and come at 58% with a day still left for expiry. Yesterday there was a monster rally which took the Nifty to 11750 levels and that created a lot of demand for puts again and the Nifty put call ratio rose to 1.65 from 1.30 levels seen at the beginning of the day. Yesterday the turn over was at 14.2 lakh crore which means that there is every chance of 22.03 lakh crore record will be broken today and we will have to see whether it happens or not. Yesterday 11700 put added 11.6 lakh positions and 11650 put added 8.3 lakh positions and 11600 put added 6.7 lakh positions. 11600 put now has the highest open interest and 11700 is not far behind. On the call side, 11800 has the highest open interest which means 11780-11800 could be a resistance.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

Yesterday all your targets would have met and you would have closed all your positions, except the one you have taken with 12000 as the target and today is the time to enjoy the profits. Today we will have a flat opening around 11720-11750 levels and that might be a small resistance and 11780-11800 is a substantial resistance on the upside. On the downside, support might come at 11680-11700 levels and today expiry might happen between 11700-11800 level and if we break 11680 then we might test 11650 levels. So, there is no need to take any risk today and you can relax and observe the expiry moves. If you get a dip below 11680 and if Nifty holds 11650 then you can think of going long there with 11720-11750 as the target. 

Market Trade Setup 24th April #NIFTY

The third and the biggest phase of polling is done and we had good polling of 67.41% vs 2014 figure of 67.28% which means we have matched the Modi wave polling and all those who are saying that the polling is less and voters are unenthusiastic need to re-look at their words again. Practically 303 out of 543 seats have polled and the market now knows who is winning and who is not. So, let’s see where it goes from today. US markets closed positive with Dow Jones gaining 140 points but Asian markets are sulking a bit today in flat to negative territory. Hong Kong is down 50 points and Japan is absolutely flat.

Coming to domestics, the polling is over and the higher voter turnout this time indicates that Modi is in the driver’s seat and the higher voter turnout was seen across all states like UP, Kerala, West Bengal etc. Now the focus shifts to a 4th phase which will go to polls on 29th. Another news is the AAP-Congress alliance in Delhi and Haryana did not happen as yesterday was the last day of polls. This also might work in favour of BJP. Lastly, the SC notice to Rahul Gandhi on the Chor remark he made will also create some news. Away from politics, today is another important day for Q4 results with Bharti infratel, ICICI prulife, Indiabulls Housing, M&M Financials, Tata Elxsi and Ultra tech cement coming up with their Q4 results.

On the derivatives front, tomorrow is the monthly expiry for the April series and there are some interesting moves seen. So far we have seen 42.4% rollovers which is slightly higher and what is more important is a lot of FII buying that happened in Nifty Futures and that too for May futures when election results are due. That took the Nifty futures long exposure to 70% and last Thursday it was at 62%. This sudden jump should be seen carefully. n options the Nifty put-call ratio remained steady at 1.30 vs 1.35 seen at the beginning of the day. 11700 call added 11 lakh positions while 12000 call shed 3.9 lakh positions which makes 11700 the highest for this series. On the put side, 11500 put has the highest open interest followed by 11600 put.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

A mildly negative Asia means we are likely to open flat around 11580-11600 zone and this is a strong support zone. If 11570 is taken out then 11520-11550 will be tested. On the upside, 11700-11720 is a strong resistance difficult to overcome. You would have taken long positions yesterday in 11600-11620 mark and today they will give you profits. If the 50 point target is reached then you could exit that position. But I have another trade to suggest now. You can go for a long position in May futures today with 12000 as the target for the election day or the exit poll day. The target can be reached before also. This position can be different from the daily positions you take. There is a chance of 350-400 point profit for the next series and take these positions to benefit from the upmove, which is going to come.

Market Trade Setup 23rd April #NIFTY

Crucial day of the entire April-May election months with 117 seats of 543 seats going for polls today. This is the phase where the largest number of seats are going for polls and with this 303 out of 543 seats would have completed and more or less we will get an idea which way the wind is blowing. So, tomorrow will be a very crucial day for the market and the behaviour of the market tomorrow will more or less tell you who is winning and who is not. But for today the global cues are mostly centred around Brent Crude which went to 6 month high of 74.5 dollars and on its way towards 75 dollars. Added to that Asian markets are subdued and Dow closed in a slightly negative territory losing 50 points.

Coming to domestics, today is the polling day and as told above 117 seats are going for polls and BJP holds 62 of them. From now on, it’s going to be more and more of BJP seats as we are moving towards North India. South will end polling with today, as 1 seat from Tamil nadu, 20 seats from Kerala and 14 seats from Karnataka are going for polls. Apart from that the entire state of Gujarat where BJP holds 26/26 seats is going for polls along with the remaining 7 seats in Chattisgarh. Goa’s two seats are also going for polls today. There are 1612 candidates from 15 states and Union Territories are going for polls. Evening there will be a post from me which will talk more about the 3rd phase. Q4 results are also going to pick up from today as cement major ACC cement along with Tata Global and Sterlite tech are coming up with Q4 results.

On the derivatives front, yesterday was a very low volume day as the participation from the FIIs was minimal due to Easter Monday. The fall coming from a low volume is not a very significant indicator and the Nifty put call ratio fell to 1.35 from 1.71. The volatility also jumped to 24% which is highest in many months. 11700 put shed 8.4 lakh positions, and 11800 put shed 8.8 lakh positions and the only strike which added open interest is 11550 put added 3.5 lakh positions. On the call side 11700 call added 29 lakh positions and 12000 call added 9.8 lakh positions. 11700 call and 12000 call almost have similar open interest of 41.5 lakh and 41.4 lakh respectively, which means either 11720 can be the top for this series or it can go all the way to 12000. With 24% volatility, nothing can be ruled out.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

Yesterday we saw a sudden fall in the afternoon to 11550 levels before recovering and closing just below 11600 mark. I had warned you not to go long if Nifty drops below 11670 mark before 10.30 and at 10 AM itself Nifty touched 11650 mark and I hope you have stayed away from the market. Today is the day where you will go long if you believe that BJP is winning this election. From today we can see a turnaround for next 2-3 days that might take Nifty past 11900 and might even go to 12000 mark. We can start seeing it somewhere today afternoon itself and tomorrow we could see that playing out in full swing. For today, we might open flat around 11600-11630 mark and you can go long here and keep a target of 50 points from wherever you were able to go long. 11700-11720 is a big resistance that it has to overcome, and if that happens then Nifty is on its way towards 12000. All my predictions are based on BJP winning and if the news goes the other way then sees a big collapse towards 11500. 

Market Trade Setup 22nd April #Nifty

Last week of April and the expiry week is here. This week has some very important cues, one being the election and the noise of Rahul’s nomination, sexual harassment charges on CJI and its impact on the key judgments waiting to be delivered and the continuing Q4 results that will impact the companies. On Thursday, US markets closed in the positive territory up 110 points but that is very old news. Yesterday’s terror attacks in Sri Lanka where 200 people lost their lives has a major impact on the growth and stability across the World. Added to that are the worries of rising crude prices for India. Crude oil has crossed 73 dollars and its trading at 73.5 dollars now. Asia today is flat with some markets in a mild positive zone and some in a mild negative.
On the domestic front, the focus today will be the Q4 results of Reliance and HDFC that came on Friday evening and Saturday respectively. After many quarters Reliance has disappointed in its petrochemical business with margins disappointing and even Reliance Jio which was having a dream run till last quarter has seen a fall in growth in the number of subscribers, revenue as well as Average revenue per user. So, overall disappointment from Reliance. That disappointment was made up by HDFC which came up with very good numbers. Added to this we have plenty of news from Amethi, where scrutiny of nominations will take place today and the final decision on the AAP-Congress alliance in Delhi and Haryana will be taken today. Tomorrow is the 3rd phase polls as well as the last day for filing nominations for 6th phase, which includes Delhi.
On the derivatives front, we had the 3rd weekly expiry of the April month and it happened on a good volume and turnover of 21.63 lakh crore and that’s heartening. Now, the focus shifts to the April monthly series expiry which will happen this Thursday. Last Thursday we saw a heavy buying in Nifty futures which indicates that there could be some more upside that market saw on the day when 2nd phase polling was happening. We will have to see its impact going into this monthly expiry. The Nifty put-call ratio, however, came down from 1.82 levels to 1.71. 11400 put added 5.1 lakh positions, 11650 call added 2.3 lakh positions and 11600 call added 1.9 lakh positions and 11500 put still has highest open interest of 28.4 lakh positions. On the call side 11800 call added 6.9 lakh positions, 12000 call added 6.8 lakh positions and 11900 call added 5.2 lakh positions. 12000 call still has the highest open interest.
What is the Nifty call for the day?
After 3 day holiday, we are opening today and the opening might be a bit flat around 11730-11760 zone and 11720 is a support that will come. The 11670-11700 is a big support zone and should hold today. Also, a lot of open interest has come on Thursday for 12000 call and we need to see if it continues. If it does, then we can look at 11850 which is all time high being tested and even broken this week. That might take us to 12000 levels also. A lot, however, depends on the election related fundamentals and we need to look at them carefully. So, for today, I would suggest that if you get a dip around 11720 levels or below that, then go for a long position. If Nifty drops below 11670 mark before 10.30am today, then don’t take any positions. Any dip from 11670-11720 levels would be an opportunity to enter again with 11800 as the target. If you have previous positions then keep 11800 as a target to exit them.

Market Trade Setup 18th April #NIFTY

We are back again for the 3rd and the last trading day of the week. Today is a very important day as there are plenty of cues that the market has to understand and digest. There is the 2nd phase of elections going on today and then you have the sad news of Jet Airways and added to that are the Q4 results that are coming. Globally things don’t look great, as Dow ended in a flat zone last night with a loss of just 3 points. But Asian markets look red today as almost all the Asian markets are in flat to the negative zone. Hong Kong and Japan are down 100 points each. Brent crude crossed 72 dollars yesterday when we were not trading but today it corrected to 71.4 dollars.
Coming to domestics, today is the 2nd phase of elections and 95 seats are going for polls today and out of that 52 seats are in South Indian states of Tamil Nadu and Southern Karnataka. BJP has 38 out of these 95 seats so it’s not going to be very crucial but what happens in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka will be closely observed by the market. NDA has just 3 out of 39 seats going for polls today and with the tie-up, with AIADMK anything is going to be gain. So, the better the AIADMK performs the better will be the NDA. Out of 14 seats going for polls in South-Karnataka BJP holds only 6 while Congress holds 6 and JDS 2. This time Cong-JDS are fighting together so it’s going to be a challenge for BJP to protect those 6 seats but infighting in Cong-JDS camp means BJP still has a chance. All this will be visible in market movements today.
On the Q4 results front, Wipro came up with their Q4 on Tuesday evening and it was a disappointment again like Infosys. Mind tree which also came up with the result yesterday was good. So, IT space is mixed with TCS and Mindtree reporting good numbers and Wipro and Infosys disappointing. The big news today is Jet Airways announcing yesterday that all flight operations are going to be suspended today. This reminds me of King Fisher story which reached a peak of 320 rupees in 2008 and came crashing to 13 rupees losing 90% of its peak value when its operations suspended on 20th October 2012. Today King Fisher is at 0. Jet started in 1993, reached a peak value of 1300 in 2005 and even in 2018 its share value was 850. Now on the day of suspension, the share value is at 240 rupees 80% loss from its peak value and now we will see the stock hitting circuit filters and the share approaching to zero if nothing is done to protect the company. Jet presently has more than 1600 employees.
On the derivatives front, today is the expiry day for the weekly series before we go for the monthly expiry next week. The action immediately shifted to options and the put-call ratio jumped to 1.82 from 1.61 mark. Tuesday saw a huge turnover of 10.5 lakh crore and today it will easily cross 20 lakh crore again. 11750 put added 10.9 lakh positions while 11800 put added 8.2 lakh positions and 11700 put added 6.3 lakh positions. 11600 put has the highest open interest of 16.7 lakh and 11700 put has 15.1 lakh. So, 11700 is establishing itself as the base for an up move that happens today. On the call side, 11900 call added 4.5 lakh positions and 11850 call added 3.2 lakh positions. 11900 call now has the highest open interest while 11800 call has a second highest open interest. So, the expiry markers today might lie between 11750 and 11850 with an outside chance of Nifty going to 11700 and 11900.
What is the Nifty call for the day?
Elections hold the key today and the states where BJP is strong like UP, Maharashtra and Chattisgarh will be keenly watched to see if BJP can hold those seats. Potential states like Tamil Nadu, Odisha and West Bengal also will be keen to see if BJP can improve substantially. States like Bihar and Karnataka will be watched to see how alliances work or don’t work. With expiry also adding to it, we will see a lot of volatility. We are likely to open in a flat zone around 11790-11820 zone and as said before Nifty can go to 11850-11900 zone or fall to 11700-11750 zone. But 11760 will be a support and for fall to happen this level has to break. Anything can go wrong, but I believe that the market will go up. So, I would suggest taking a long position in May futures around 11800-11820 mark with 11860-11900 as the target. Exit as soon as the targets are achieved and hold it till the targets are reached.

Market Trade Setup 16th April #Nifty

Yesterday I was talking about Nifty closing above 11700 to give an indication that 11760 will be broken and we will go up. But the usual resistance zone of 11680-11700 was difficult to cross and it closed within the range. Better than close at the resistance than to fall and test the support. In that way, its a very positive move from Nifty, but I think we still have to wait for another day to see whether the resistance will be broken or not. Last night Dow closed in a flat to negative territory losing around 30 points and today morning Asian markets also flat with Hong Kong and Japan up within the 20 to 50 point range. Good news is Brent crude fell below 71 dollar mark trading at 70.7 dollars and the Rupee is at 69.42 to the dollar.
On the domestic front, the news of near normal monsoon came at 3.15PM yesterday and markets were least bothered. Actually, IMD needs to do some hard work and needs to come up with accurate forecasts. Last 4 years IMD got it wrong and this year IMD says that there is a 39% probability of normal monsoon while there is a 32% probability of below normal monsoon and 17% probability of drought. When you don’t have even a 40% chance of normal monsoon how can you say that it’s going to be normal and how do you think the market will believe it? This IMD forecast was thrown into junk and the market showed no reaction. The other news is good to trade data coming for March. The Trade deficit narrowed to 10.89 billion in March 2019 compared to 13.51 billion in March 2018. The best news is an 11% rise in exports to 32.5 billion while imports have gone up by only 1.44% to 43.44 billion.
On the derivative front, the only significant point we need to look at in the Futures market is the drop in the Nifty premium from 60 points to 37 points and that is almost 40% fall in premium and that was due to unwinding of long positions as Nifty touched 11700 mark and that brought the overall long positions in the futures market to 62%. In the options market however there was more demand for puts as 4 puts were sold for every call sold and 2 calls were bought for every put bought. That took the Nifty put-call ratio to 1.61 from 1.55 mark. 11650 put added maximum positions of 6.2 lakh while 11700 put added 5.5 lakh positions. 11600 put followed by 11500 puts has the highest open interest for this week’s expiry. On the call side, 4.2 lakh positions added at 11800 call and 2.7 lakh positions got added at 11700 call and 11700 call still has highest open interest but 11800 is close behind. Any up move today will add huge positions to 11800 call making it the new resistance point.
What is the Nifty call for the day?
Today Asia is flat but we are likely to open a bit positive. Point to be noted is, even though the cues were negative yesterday domestically, we did not see Nifty slipping below 11620-11650 mark and closed very close to 11700 mark. That means the election factor and BJP victory is still keeping the markets higher, fighting any negative cues. Today we have the trade data which came positive and that means we will open slightly positive between 11710-11740 zone and that brings us very close to 11761 which is the all-time high. Are we going to hit another all-time high before triggering a selloff or are we going to close above 11760?
Don’t look at losing these 60-70 point chance of making profits but watch carefully and hope that Nifty closes above 11760. Today is also the last day of campaigning for the 2nd phase polling and close above 11750 means market is still sticking to its election fundamental. So, no trade day today, just observe. Tomorrow is a holiday, we can come back on Thursday and look at how things shape.

Market Trade Setup 15th April #Nifty

The shortest trading week of the year so far is here. This is a 3 day trading week with market shut on Wednesday due to Mahavir Jayanthi and on Friday due to Good Friday. In-between you have a weekly expiry on Thursday. So, today and tomorrow are the only normal trading days. The most important news that we would be looking at today is the IMD forecast for this year’s monsoon that will come around 3 PM. Skymet has given a disappointing figure now we will look at IMD to see what it says. If we look at the global markets, they are all celebrating due to strong macro data coming from China, especially the exports going up by 14% and imports coming down. Shanghai market up close to 2% and all the other markets like Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan all in deep green with Japan and Hong Kong both 300 points in green. US markets also added fuel on Friday with Dow closing close to 270 points up.
Coming to domestics, if the data took China and other Asian markets up, it is the same data that will put pressure on us and we are likely to start flat. The IIP data for February came after markets closed at 5.30pm and it was a big disappointment. IIP grew at just 0.1% vs 1.7% seen in January and this is the lowest in the last 20 months. Manufacturing has actually contracted by growing at -0.3% and thus the demand for electricity came down and it just saw a growth of 1.2%. Electricity usually grows more than 4-5% during the beginning of the summer months. The only saving grace was inflation data for March that came at 2.8% vs expected 3% and the food inflation finally came to positive at 0.3%. The best data is from services inflation which was down to 5% from 5.3% seen in February. On the Q4 results front, while TCS has met the target Infosys has disappointed with margins coming lower and growth guidance also is lower. So, we still have mixed Q4 results.
Coming to derivatives, there was some buying that happened on Friday as Nifty started to pick up in the afternoon due to weekly short covering. The overall long positions in Nifty futures now stand at 63%. Coming to the options market, there was demand for puts and that is visible in Nifty put-call ratio going up to 1.57 from 1.49 at the beginning of the day. 11600 put added maximum open interest of 8.1 lakh and 11500 put added 4.3 lakh positions and 11550 put 3.6 lakh positions. 11600 put still continues to have the highest open interest indicating that 11570 is a support level. On the call side, 11750 call added 2.6 lakh positions and 11800 call added 2.3 lakh positions while 12000 call added 1.9 lakh positions. 11700 call continues to have the highest open interest and a distant second is 12000 call. So, 11740 zones will be a strong resistance for this week’s expiry. But on the April monthly expiry, still 11500 put and 12000 call continues to have the highest open interest indicating that 12000 is possible this series. But 11800 is fast catching up, so it can act as a hurdle on the upside.
What is the Nifty call for the day?
A weak macro data and a disappointing Infosys data means we will start flat in the 11640-11660 levels and on the downside 11570-11580 might offer strong support and if the fall doesn’t happen then 11680-11700 might act as the first resistance. On Friday, we have taken the 11680 as a target and those targets were reached, and you would have exited your positions. Today is a day of uncertainty, so I would suggest not to take any positions today. But if there is a correction to 11570-11580 levels and Nifty stabilizes there then you can go long with 11650 as the target. Else, it’s better to wait and watch if 11680-11720 zone is taken out or not before deciding on further action.

Market Trade Setup 12th April #NIFTY

It was a polling day yesterday for 91 seats across India and it went off well. The voting percentages matched up to the game-changing election of 2014 and conventionally higher voting turnout helps the ruling party and thus BJP will heave a sigh of relief. High voting was observed in Western Uttar Pradesh where BJP holds all the 8 seats that went to polls. Maharashtra also had the poll percentages dropping to 56% compared and all the 7 seats that went to polls in Vidharba are held by BJP. Elsewhere the two seats in West Bengal saw 80 plus percentage polling but polling was less in 5 seats in Uttarakhand where BJP again holding all these 5. Voting was also low in Assam and other northeastern states and in Assam BJP holds 4 out of the 5 seats that went to polls.

So, if we make senses of all these vote percentages and how they translate into seats then the picture we get is mixed. UP matched in its vote share so BJP would have got the vote that it got, but unlike last time this time SP-BSP-RLD are fighting together in these 8 seats and a combined influence will be felt in 2-3 seats and BJP would be looking at these seats with worry. Worries for BJP will come from Assam, Maharashtra and Uttarakhand where the polling was less. Assam has a sizable Muslim population and a drop in voting means BJP voters have not turned up and voted as they did in 2014. Markets will need some time to digest all this and where that leaves Nifty needs to be seen.  In all this CPI, IIP data will be released today after the market hours and so will be the Q4 results of TCS and Infosys coming after markets close.
Coming to derivatives, yesterday was the weekly expiry and we have witnessed one of the flattest expiries in the recent memory. The turnover was also less than 20 lakh crore, something which we have not seen in the last two expiries. The options market buzzed with demand for puts and the Nifty put-call ratio went to 1.47 from 1.33 seen at the beginning of the day. Today is the start of expiry week of 18th April and we again have a 4 day weekly series. 11660,11500 and 11400 puts all added equal open interest and for now 11600 put has the highest open interest but it could change today. Point is 11500 and 11400 are also opening up which means Nifty can go to 11390 levels. On the call side, 12000 call added maximum open interest yesterday but 11700 call continues to have a highest open interest which means 11740 will be a big resistance.
What is the Nifty call for the day?
A mixed Asia and some doubts about which way polling went would mean we open bit gap down around 11550-11580 zone and this is a strong support zone. If 11550 is broken then immediately we can go to 11480-11500 levels and that could trigger a lot of shorting. If Nifty takes support at 11550 and crosses 11600 mark then all is well and we can move forward. Just 1 out of 7 phases is over and we still have 6 phases and nearly 450 seats yet to go for polls. Many things can change during this time and the market knows that. So, I would suggest that if Nifty holds 11550 levels then we can go for a long position with 11620-11640 as the possible targets and those positions can be carried to next week also. But just in case Nifty drops to 11500 and goes below that then wait and watch. Don’t rush.

Market Trade Setup 11th April #Nifty

Finally, the Election Mahotsav arrives. The 7 phase polling that we would see for the next 38 days is going to be breath taking with strategies and counter strategies by the ruling party and the opposition. All in all, we are going to see the most crucial election in the recent time, crucial than the one which happened in 2014, which incidentally was my first election and the first time I cast my vote. The global markets are not looking that positive as Dow closed flat last night and all Asian markets are in red especially the Hong Kong which is down 200 points and Japan down 150 points. Brent Crude is still above 71 dollars and that continues to be a big worry.

Coming to domestics, market movement today will completely depend on how the first phase goes today. Farm distress, jobs and national security are the major issues that we are facing in this election and the first phase today is mostly concentrated in South India. 44 out of 91 seats, which is roughly half of the seats going to polls are from South India, especially AP and Telangana. 60 out of the 91 seats are the rural seats and what rural south India thinks about Govt is important. As such BJP has very less stake in the south and out of these 44 seats in South BJP holds just 4 of them. But things are different in other 47 seats of North, Northeast and Western India. There out of 47 seats BJP holds 34 seats so it is extremely crucial that BJP should try to hold many of them. The big challenge is the 8 seats in UP where BJP holds all 8 of them. All these are from western UP and with SP-BSP-RLD combine, BJP is facing a united opposition.

On the derivatives front, as Nifty fell close to 90 points yesterday, on the slew of bad news for BJP starting with the Supreme court verdict, there was selling that happened in the Nifty futures market. The Nifty long positions which fell to 67% have now fallen to 63% at the end of the day. In the options market, however, the demand for the call continued and the Nifty put-call ratio fell to 1.33 from 1.42 mark seen at the beginning of the day. Today is the Nifty weekly expiry and if we look at the open interest positions, 11500 put has the highest open interest, compared to 11600 put yesterday and 11700 call has the highest open interest. Right now Nifty is at 11584 which is almost the mid point.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

A red Asia means we will also open in the flat zone around 11580-11600 mark and as the options positions indicate today could be a day of volatility where market can test 11500 mark and even might go to 11680 mark. Much of it depends on how the elections of the first phase go, especially in Uttar pradesh and Maharashtra. Yesterday, you would not have taken positions, considering the fall and the volatility that Nifty has shown. If you have not taken a position, its good and do not go for any fresh position now. But if you have ended up taking a position then all that you need to do is to hope that you get a sharp up move above 11650 mark so that you can exit that position. Today is election as well as expiry so its time to wait and watch.