All posts by Sriram

A Teacher trying to Learn new things and explore the world each day! Believe in Happiness by the virtue of sacrifice and forgiveness.

Market Trade Setup 25th April #NIFTY

Expiry day arrives and it comes on the back of 150 point rally, and I was always talking about it in my posts for the last 2 days. Market sensed the mood of the nation in favour of BJP and that gave it a big push. The resistance level of 11700-11720 is broken and now 11700-11850 territory is open for Nifty now. The US markets last night was flat to negative with Dow closing 20 points down and the Asian markets today looks mixed. The first quarter GDP of South Korea comes at just 1.8% which is much lower than expected and that has influenced other markets and except Hong Kong, all the other Asian markets are down. Brent Crude is still stuck at 74 dollar mark and trading at 74.4 dollars.

Coming to the domestics, the heat of election campaign is picking up as the campaigning for the 71 seats of 4th phase reaches the peak and the nominations for the last phase going on. Modi will hold a huge road show in Varanasi today and he will be filing his nomination from there tomorrow in the presence of many NDA leaders. On the Q4 front, the mixed trend of results continues with India bulls housing finance, Bharti Infratel coming up with weak results while the star performer was Ultra tech cement which came up with fantastic numbers and M&M financials also reporting good numbers. Today Biocon, Maruti Suzuki, Rallis India and Tata steel are going to come up with their Q4 results and we need to watch them carefully.

On the derivatives front, expiry day is here and the rollovers to May are very high now and come at 58% with a day still left for expiry. Yesterday there was a monster rally which took the Nifty to 11750 levels and that created a lot of demand for puts again and the Nifty put call ratio rose to 1.65 from 1.30 levels seen at the beginning of the day. Yesterday the turn over was at 14.2 lakh crore which means that there is every chance of 22.03 lakh crore record will be broken today and we will have to see whether it happens or not. Yesterday 11700 put added 11.6 lakh positions and 11650 put added 8.3 lakh positions and 11600 put added 6.7 lakh positions. 11600 put now has the highest open interest and 11700 is not far behind. On the call side, 11800 has the highest open interest which means 11780-11800 could be a resistance.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

Yesterday all your targets would have met and you would have closed all your positions, except the one you have taken with 12000 as the target and today is the time to enjoy the profits. Today we will have a flat opening around 11720-11750 levels and that might be a small resistance and 11780-11800 is a substantial resistance on the upside. On the downside, support might come at 11680-11700 levels and today expiry might happen between 11700-11800 level and if we break 11680 then we might test 11650 levels. So, there is no need to take any risk today and you can relax and observe the expiry moves. If you get a dip below 11680 and if Nifty holds 11650 then you can think of going long there with 11720-11750 as the target. 

Bhagavadgita Chapter 18 Moksha Sannyas Yoga Verse 53

Ahankaaram balam darpam kaamam krodham parigraham; Vimuchya nirmamah shaanto brahmabhooyaaya kalpate.
Having abandoned egoism, strength, arrogance, anger, desire, and covetousness, free from the notion of “mine” and peaceful,—he is fit for becoming Brahman.
Interpretation
This is the third and concluding part of the shloka that talks about the qualities that makes a person fit enough to be a Brahman. Lord talks about abandoning the egoism in a person and also the show of strength. He should be free from anger, arrogance and desire. He should rise above being covetousness, which is a quality where a person tends to eye things that belongs to others. He should also get rid of having possessiveness on things and should not look at anything as belonging to him and finally his mind should be peaceful at all times and should never lose the balance. Such kind of a person is fit enough for becoming Brahman says Lord Krishna. 
Extending Interpretation to Mankind’s Life!
The last thing a sattwik person should have is “ownership” on anything. I say sattwik because, towards his journey towards Brahman, a person has to be sattwik by  nature. A sattwik person also sees everything with detachment and doesnt like to possess anything. But we still have the urges and ownership of things that we possess. When you think something is yours, then it means it doesnt belong to anyone else. This is a false notion and the ultimate truth is also that except God, no one else has any owneship on anything, nor he owns anything. You say that a gold ornament or diamond necklace is yours, you say that because you paid money to buy it and thus you think you own it.
But if you look deeper into it, neither Gold or diamond was created by us and these are the resources that exist in nature and something that exist in nature like air, water, soil etc things like gold, diamonds also belong to everyone. But human being captures these resources that are scarce or something that has demand and sells and makes money. When he is not the real owner, how can he sell it and how can anyone buy it? In the world of spirituality and Brahman there is nothing which is yours and everything belongs to everyone. Sharing both natural as well as man made resources increases your happiness and makes you feel good. So, never say that anything is yours, its everyone’s and sharing it can only bring you the true happiness. 

Market Trade Setup 24th April #NIFTY

The third and the biggest phase of polling is done and we had good polling of 67.41% vs 2014 figure of 67.28% which means we have matched the Modi wave polling and all those who are saying that the polling is less and voters are unenthusiastic need to re-look at their words again. Practically 303 out of 543 seats have polled and the market now knows who is winning and who is not. So, let’s see where it goes from today. US markets closed positive with Dow Jones gaining 140 points but Asian markets are sulking a bit today in flat to negative territory. Hong Kong is down 50 points and Japan is absolutely flat.

Coming to domestics, the polling is over and the higher voter turnout this time indicates that Modi is in the driver’s seat and the higher voter turnout was seen across all states like UP, Kerala, West Bengal etc. Now the focus shifts to a 4th phase which will go to polls on 29th. Another news is the AAP-Congress alliance in Delhi and Haryana did not happen as yesterday was the last day of polls. This also might work in favour of BJP. Lastly, the SC notice to Rahul Gandhi on the Chor remark he made will also create some news. Away from politics, today is another important day for Q4 results with Bharti infratel, ICICI prulife, Indiabulls Housing, M&M Financials, Tata Elxsi and Ultra tech cement coming up with their Q4 results.

On the derivatives front, tomorrow is the monthly expiry for the April series and there are some interesting moves seen. So far we have seen 42.4% rollovers which is slightly higher and what is more important is a lot of FII buying that happened in Nifty Futures and that too for May futures when election results are due. That took the Nifty futures long exposure to 70% and last Thursday it was at 62%. This sudden jump should be seen carefully. n options the Nifty put-call ratio remained steady at 1.30 vs 1.35 seen at the beginning of the day. 11700 call added 11 lakh positions while 12000 call shed 3.9 lakh positions which makes 11700 the highest for this series. On the put side, 11500 put has the highest open interest followed by 11600 put.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

A mildly negative Asia means we are likely to open flat around 11580-11600 zone and this is a strong support zone. If 11570 is taken out then 11520-11550 will be tested. On the upside, 11700-11720 is a strong resistance difficult to overcome. You would have taken long positions yesterday in 11600-11620 mark and today they will give you profits. If the 50 point target is reached then you could exit that position. But I have another trade to suggest now. You can go for a long position in May futures today with 12000 as the target for the election day or the exit poll day. The target can be reached before also. This position can be different from the daily positions you take. There is a chance of 350-400 point profit for the next series and take these positions to benefit from the upmove, which is going to come.

117 Seats, 13 States and 2 Union Territories in the Phase 3 #LokSabha2019 #Elections

Today was the 3rd phase of Lok Sabha Elections 2019 which had 117 seats going for polling. The voter turnout for the last two phases was an average of 69.47% and today’s third phase has shown 66.38% updated as of 11:30 PM. With this, the average voter turnout after three phases stands at 68.43%. This means the present voter turnout is higher than that of the 2014 voter turnout of 66%.

After 3 phases the total number of seats that have gone for polling are 303/543 seats. We now have just 240 seats with 4 phases to go which means with this phase the winner could be already decided. But then we all have to wait till 19th may for the exit polls and 23rd may for the results day to know who will be the winner. One thing is pretty sure that this is the most anticipated elections not just for India but also for the World and there are innumerable events happening in the parts of the country. Violence in West Bengal, Poor voter turnout in Kashmir, High voter turnout in Wayanad and many more.

Important Candidates from Third Phase.

Let’s look at the top 10 seats for this phase:

1. Wayanad – Kerala – Rahul Gandhi is without any doubt winning this seat, as per the data from Election Commission the voter turnout was 74.83% and Rahul is expected to win with a high majority.

2. Thrissur – This is not going to be an easy contest, though this will be a triangular contest between BJP vs INC vs CPI, the real contest is between BJP and INC. Tough one to tell but quite seems like it’s BJP who would win it.

3. Thiruvananthapuram – Kerala – Shashi Tharoor is the name known for his English is the major Congress leader, more than Congress Tharoor has to win it for himself, but then the things have changed a lot for him and are more likely to lose the elections this time. This would mean the victory could be for the K Rajashekaran from BJP.

4. Shimoga – Karnataka – Moving into the land of Karnataka, Shimoga is a crucial seat in Karnataka for any party. Expected that BJP would win this even after the alliance between the JDS and INC.

5. Baramati – Maharashtra – The NCP’s safe seat. Baramati is the seat which is always with the NCP and the sitting MP Supriya Sule is again contesting and is expected to win hands down here.

6. Gandhinagar – Gujarat – Marking the entry of Amit Shah is the constituency of LK Advani. Amit Shah will be hoping that he will retain the seat and also bring in a number of voters on his side. So, this will mark the Amit Shah’s entry into the Lok Sabha.

7. Puri – Odisha – The stronghold of BJD. But then here also there have been a lot of groundwork done by the BJP’s members and are expecting to make inroads into the Odisha. Dr Sambit Patra the spokesperson of BJP is standing this time for BJP and will want to win this battle.

8. Rampur – Uttar Pradesh – the state which gave BJP the most number of seats and BJP knows that there are losses coming from UP. But in Rampur, the controversy by Azam Khan has resulted in sympathy for Jayaprada and this could be her victory.

9. Pilibhit – UP – Varun Gandhi, the young BJP leader who has a lot of positive feeling will be going against the Hemraj Verma and is expected to win the battle outright which is what the voter turnout increase also tells us.

10. Mainpuri – UP – this is the seat where Mulayam Singh who wanted Modi to come to power is contesting. Mulayam Singh from SP+BSP alliance might see Modi winning the national elections but at Mainpuri it might be Mulayam all the way and a defeat for BJP.

Let’s look at the state-wise seats and the probable winning numbers:

1. Assam – 4 seats of Assam are going for polls and a higher voter turnout than 2014 means BJP which won all the 4 seats in 2014 might also repeat this time too.

2. Bihar – This phase saw 5 seats of Northern Bihar going for polls and BJP in 2014 holds 4 of them. This time too the same might be repeated.

3. Goa – The two seats of Goa went to polls today amongst a low voter turnout. With Manohar Parrikar Goans seem to have lost interest. BJP which swept both seats in Goa last time might have to share one with Congress this time

4. Gujarat – Voting in Gujarat was similar to what it was last time but repeating 26/26 again is going to be a tough ask. BJP might concede 2-4 seats to Congress this time.

5. Jammu Kashmir – Very low voter turnout will mean even the sitting MP Mehbooba Mufti might not win.

6. Karnataka – The remaining 14 seats of North Karnataka went for polls and the polls were heavy as the previous phase in South Karnataka. BJP holds 11 out of 14 and with an alliance of Cong-JDS playing out big in Hyderabad Karnataka BJP might end up winning 9-10 seats.

7. Kerala – 20 seats – Congress is doing much better here and expected to win good numbers at 14 seats, BJP will only make its presence by winning 2 and CPI will see bad fall to just 4 seats.

8. Maharashtra –The 14 seats, mainly from Western Maharashtra, the sugar belt and stronghold of Sharad Pawar going to polls. Last time BJP won 11 out of 14 but a lesser turnout this time means the enthusiastic BJP voter has not come out and voted in full force. This might cost BJP a couple of seats and they might win 9 seats giving 5 to Cong-NCP alliance.

9. Odisha – 6 seats went to polls and Odisha saw a very low voter turnout which might harm the ruling BJD and BJP might grab 3-4 seats here.

10. Tripura – 1 seat – BJP’s victory

11. Uttar Pradesh – 10 seats – Crucial State and BJP held 7 out of 10 last time but this time it looks like BJP will fall to 6 and lose 4 to SP+BSP

12. West Bengal – 5 seats – the goons state is not letting the polls conducted peacefully, this could be a negative for ruling party and BJP is expected to win 2 and TMC will take the other 3

13. Chattisgarh – 7 seats – Recent assembly elections have shown us how much BJP has lost and they are expected to fall to 4 seats with INC winning 3 seats

14. Dadra Nagar Haveli – 1 – BJP winner

15. Daman Diu – 1 – BJP winner

In 2014 NDA had 67 out of 117 seats and going BJP might retain the same number and might add 2-3 seats more to its kitty and might touch the 70 figure. Congress is also benefitting and might add close to 10 seats to the 18 they won last time. Others are the big losers who might drop to less than 15 seats from 25 plus they had last time

Bhagavadgita Chapter 18 Moksha Sannyas Yoga Verse 52

Viviktasevee laghwaashee yatavaakkaayamaanasah; Dhyaanayogaparo nityam vairaagyam samupaashritah.

Dwelling in solitude, eating but little, with speech, body and mind subdued, always engaged in concentration and meditation, taking refuge in dispassion;
Interpretation
Lord Krishna in this 2nd part of the three part shloka talks about some more qualities that a person exhibits after attaining perfection. He says that the an important quality of the person is he likes to live in solitude, which means avoiding people and places where people gather. He also eats very little compared to others of his age group. The person also keeps his body, mind and speech subdued, which means he talks less. The next quality that Lord describes here is that his is engaged in a continuous meditation and concentration by being totally dispassionate and unattached to any work he does.
Extending Interpretation to Mankind’s Life!
There are people who like crowds and there are people who live in solitude. We are not talking about introverts and extroverts here. An introvert always likes solitude and he doesnt feel comfortable in the company of many people and it is a part of a person’s personality. Am not talking about an introvert here. Am talking about an extrovert who likes to talk and communicate with people, experiencing a transformation and preferring solitude. As the knowledge and perfection in a person goes up he start to avoid people as much as he can and prefer to be in solitude. The main reason for this is, when you are alone then you can communicate much better with yourself than being in the company of others. 
It doesn’t mean that introverts communicate with themselves and are one step away from attaining Brahman. It is just that they communicate less than the average person and extroverts communicate more than the average person. But a spiritual person, starts talking to himself, and when he does that he stops communicating with the other people. When you want to meditate and concentrate you have to talk less and when you are in the state of stillness and inactivity you tend to eat less and less passionate about the things around you. This is how Lord explain the second set of characteristics of a person who is going to the state of Brahman. 

Market Trade Setup 23rd April #NIFTY

Crucial day of the entire April-May election months with 117 seats of 543 seats going for polls today. This is the phase where the largest number of seats are going for polls and with this 303 out of 543 seats would have completed and more or less we will get an idea which way the wind is blowing. So, tomorrow will be a very crucial day for the market and the behaviour of the market tomorrow will more or less tell you who is winning and who is not. But for today the global cues are mostly centred around Brent Crude which went to 6 month high of 74.5 dollars and on its way towards 75 dollars. Added to that Asian markets are subdued and Dow closed in a slightly negative territory losing 50 points.

Coming to domestics, today is the polling day and as told above 117 seats are going for polls and BJP holds 62 of them. From now on, it’s going to be more and more of BJP seats as we are moving towards North India. South will end polling with today, as 1 seat from Tamil nadu, 20 seats from Kerala and 14 seats from Karnataka are going for polls. Apart from that the entire state of Gujarat where BJP holds 26/26 seats is going for polls along with the remaining 7 seats in Chattisgarh. Goa’s two seats are also going for polls today. There are 1612 candidates from 15 states and Union Territories are going for polls. Evening there will be a post from me which will talk more about the 3rd phase. Q4 results are also going to pick up from today as cement major ACC cement along with Tata Global and Sterlite tech are coming up with Q4 results.

On the derivatives front, yesterday was a very low volume day as the participation from the FIIs was minimal due to Easter Monday. The fall coming from a low volume is not a very significant indicator and the Nifty put call ratio fell to 1.35 from 1.71. The volatility also jumped to 24% which is highest in many months. 11700 put shed 8.4 lakh positions, and 11800 put shed 8.8 lakh positions and the only strike which added open interest is 11550 put added 3.5 lakh positions. On the call side 11700 call added 29 lakh positions and 12000 call added 9.8 lakh positions. 11700 call and 12000 call almost have similar open interest of 41.5 lakh and 41.4 lakh respectively, which means either 11720 can be the top for this series or it can go all the way to 12000. With 24% volatility, nothing can be ruled out.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

Yesterday we saw a sudden fall in the afternoon to 11550 levels before recovering and closing just below 11600 mark. I had warned you not to go long if Nifty drops below 11670 mark before 10.30 and at 10 AM itself Nifty touched 11650 mark and I hope you have stayed away from the market. Today is the day where you will go long if you believe that BJP is winning this election. From today we can see a turnaround for next 2-3 days that might take Nifty past 11900 and might even go to 12000 mark. We can start seeing it somewhere today afternoon itself and tomorrow we could see that playing out in full swing. For today, we might open flat around 11600-11630 mark and you can go long here and keep a target of 50 points from wherever you were able to go long. 11700-11720 is a big resistance that it has to overcome, and if that happens then Nifty is on its way towards 12000. All my predictions are based on BJP winning and if the news goes the other way then sees a big collapse towards 11500. 

Bhagavadgita Chapter 18 Moksha Sannyasa Yoga Verse 51

Buddhyaa vishuddhayaa yukto dhrityaatmaanam niyamya cha; Shabdaadeen vishayaanstyaktwaa raagadweshau vyudasya cha.

Endowed with a pure intellect, controlling the self by firmness, 
relinquishing sound and other objects and abandoning both hatred and attraction;
Interpretation
This is a three part shloka that talks about how a person becomes fit for the union with Brahman. In the first part Lord is talking about four qualities that are required for a person to attain Brahman. The first is that he should have pure intellect, which is knowledge that is of the supreme order. Second is he should be able to control himself by the firmness, which means he should never allow his senses to deviate. Third is he should relinquish sound and other objects of senses and finally Lord also talks about abandoning both the hatred and attraction.
Extending Interpretation to Mankind’s Life!
When you ask a question to a learned person he gives an answer which is very different from an ordinary person. Like for example if you ask a person why sun rises only in the east and sets in the west, then an ordinary person will say that it is the rule of the nature and it happens that way only but a learned person says that since the spin of the earth is from west to east, we see sun moving from east to west. At the basic level both answers are right. Rule of the nature is earth rotates from west to east. Because earth rotates from west to east sun will appear to be moving from East to West. This is the difference between the knowledge levels of an ordinary person and a learned person.
An ordinary person leaves things that he cannot understand to God and says that it all happens because God had made it that way. Like the seasons that we experience. An ordinary person cannot explain why we have summer first in an year, followed by rainy season and finally winter. A learned person sees the tilt of the earth responsible for the seasons. This is something even a small child learns in school but 99% people dont remember them. A learned person because he sees meaning in everything he learns never forgets it. That in short is the basic difference between ordinary knowledge and pure knowledge. A person who is endowed with that pure knowledge also controls himself from doing wrong things and controls his senses and abandons the feeling of hatred and attraction is eligible for attaining Brahman says Lord Krishna. 

Market Trade Setup 22nd April #Nifty

Last week of April and the expiry week is here. This week has some very important cues, one being the election and the noise of Rahul’s nomination, sexual harassment charges on CJI and its impact on the key judgments waiting to be delivered and the continuing Q4 results that will impact the companies. On Thursday, US markets closed in the positive territory up 110 points but that is very old news. Yesterday’s terror attacks in Sri Lanka where 200 people lost their lives has a major impact on the growth and stability across the World. Added to that are the worries of rising crude prices for India. Crude oil has crossed 73 dollars and its trading at 73.5 dollars now. Asia today is flat with some markets in a mild positive zone and some in a mild negative.
On the domestic front, the focus today will be the Q4 results of Reliance and HDFC that came on Friday evening and Saturday respectively. After many quarters Reliance has disappointed in its petrochemical business with margins disappointing and even Reliance Jio which was having a dream run till last quarter has seen a fall in growth in the number of subscribers, revenue as well as Average revenue per user. So, overall disappointment from Reliance. That disappointment was made up by HDFC which came up with very good numbers. Added to this we have plenty of news from Amethi, where scrutiny of nominations will take place today and the final decision on the AAP-Congress alliance in Delhi and Haryana will be taken today. Tomorrow is the 3rd phase polls as well as the last day for filing nominations for 6th phase, which includes Delhi.
On the derivatives front, we had the 3rd weekly expiry of the April month and it happened on a good volume and turnover of 21.63 lakh crore and that’s heartening. Now, the focus shifts to the April monthly series expiry which will happen this Thursday. Last Thursday we saw a heavy buying in Nifty futures which indicates that there could be some more upside that market saw on the day when 2nd phase polling was happening. We will have to see its impact going into this monthly expiry. The Nifty put-call ratio, however, came down from 1.82 levels to 1.71. 11400 put added 5.1 lakh positions, 11650 call added 2.3 lakh positions and 11600 call added 1.9 lakh positions and 11500 put still has highest open interest of 28.4 lakh positions. On the call side 11800 call added 6.9 lakh positions, 12000 call added 6.8 lakh positions and 11900 call added 5.2 lakh positions. 12000 call still has the highest open interest.
What is the Nifty call for the day?
After 3 day holiday, we are opening today and the opening might be a bit flat around 11730-11760 zone and 11720 is a support that will come. The 11670-11700 is a big support zone and should hold today. Also, a lot of open interest has come on Thursday for 12000 call and we need to see if it continues. If it does, then we can look at 11850 which is all time high being tested and even broken this week. That might take us to 12000 levels also. A lot, however, depends on the election related fundamentals and we need to look at them carefully. So, for today, I would suggest that if you get a dip around 11720 levels or below that, then go for a long position. If Nifty drops below 11670 mark before 10.30am today, then don’t take any positions. Any dip from 11670-11720 levels would be an opportunity to enter again with 11800 as the target. If you have previous positions then keep 11800 as a target to exit them.

Bhagavadgita Chapter 18 Moksha Sannyas Yoga Verse 50

Siddhim praapto yathaa brahma tathaapnoti nibodha me; Samaasenaiva kaunteya nishthaa jnaanasya yaa paraa.
Learn from Me in brief, O Arjuna, how he who has attained perfection reaches Brahman, that supreme state of knowledge.
Interpretation
In all the previous shlokas we were talking about perfection and the ways and means to attain perfection. Lord Krishna from this shloka starts to talk about the state of the person after he attains perfection. Lord tells Arjuna that perfection is not the end of everything and once a person attains perfection, there is still some more journey that he has to take. So, Lord says that once a person reaches the state of Brahman how he reaches Brahman, the supreme which is also called as the supreme state of knowledge. 
Extending Interpretation to Mankind’s Life!
We know many things, but we practice just few of them. This statement more or less summarizes everything that you do in life. Suppose you were asked to write an essay on cow. That is a very easy topic to write on, but when you finish writing it, and after self evaluation you feel that you could have written a lot more. This is something which makes you feel that something which was perfect moments ago can be improved even more. Same is the case with the things you do, people you talk to and the situations that you respond to. The key here is the self evaluation. A person has to critically evaluate himself without any bias as to how he handled a situation or a person he would agree that he could have done a lot more with every effort.
Why is there always a gap between what we could do and what we end up doing, what we could say and what we end up saying? The answer is the noise. This noise is in the form of hesitation, ego, shyness, carelessness or anything which makes a person not give his 100%. We call that noise because it disturbs and deviates. But mind has the amazing ability to justify and rationalize all its actions. So, it comforts itself that the 100% is not the 100% and what he tried is actually the 100%. That is where we say dont be idealistic but be practical. In reality, when the real perfection is attained, then there is no gap between what is idealistic and what is practical. Practical is amount through which the noise deviated you from attaining what is idealistic. Let’s hear more from Lord Krishna on these, in the coming shlokas.