Expiry day is finally here for the series that ran for 5 weeks and this series is still 200 plus points in the negative zone and unless a miracle happens this series also will go to bears like the July series. If this happens then bears will have 4 months and bulls also 4 months. So, it’s tied at 4-4 and the focus will shift onto September series. January, March, April and May series went for bulls while February, June, July and August series went to bears.
Today, we don’t have a great signal from Asia as all the Asian markets are trading in the red. Dow, however, was positive last night and closed 250 points higher. Coming to Asia, the Hong Kong market from which we take cues for opening is down 200 points and Japan is also down 100 points. Brent crude crossed 60 mark and now trading at 60.3 dollars.
Coming to domestics, yesterday there were many major announcements regarding FDI and the 3 PM move of the market from 10980 to 11050 mark is primarily a precursor to it. FDI is now allowed 100% in contract manufacturing and this is coming on the back of many US companies pulling out of China and this is a smart move. Apart from that, there is 100% FDI on Insurance broking and 100% FDI in mining and 26% FDI in Animation and Digital news in the media sector.
Also, the norms were eased out for single-brand retailers for entry and operations. All this will be seen positively by the market and definitely market will react to it, today or tomorrow if expiry factors stop it. There is also talk about something positive being done for the direct taxes as well as personal income tax and Govt will announce it shortly.
Coming to today’s expiry, there was some selling yesterday in the F&O market and FIIs sold close to 1400 Cr on Nifty futures and this is seen by many as selling after a correction. Yesterday we saw a 14.6 lakh crore turnover and today we will in all probability create a new record and might even cross 27 lakh crore mark.
Surprisingly, much of the data including the Open Interest data was withheld by NSE for unknown reasons and am seeing it for the first time after I started writing these posts. The change in the open interest column is also looking weird and thus I cannot say anything on strikes and OI build-up there. The 20 dma is at 10990 mark and the 200dma is at 11200 mark and today we might move in-between these two levels and as of now, Nifty is at the lower end of this band.
What is the Nifty call for the day?
Today we have some negative cues coming from Asia but it has a lot of positive things to react to, plus the expiry factor. So, expect a very volatile market where we might open at 11020-11050 mark and then there is 10980 mark where the 20 dma should give it support. With the news that came yesterday evening breaking this 10950-10980 is difficult and Nifty might take support there and go up.
The upper end for the Nifty goes all the way to 11180 mark and we might see a lot of volatility today and where Nifty expires nobody can guess. The only thing we can expect is an expiry between 11050-11180 mark. So, the trade for the day is, if 11000 holds then you can go long with 11060-11080 as the target for the day.