There are polls which have even given BJP a landslide victory of 350+ seats. As this happened, something that used to happen after the counting has come 2 days early. I am talking about opposition blaming EVM machines. Will not comment on that because its baseless and let’s wait till 23rd May. But I will certainly analyse the important states to watch out for us on Thursday. I will give a brief of why we should look at these states:
- Madhya Pradesh: Madhya Pradesh was a big victory for BJP in the last elections but they had faced defeat in the hands of Congress in assembly elections which concluded in December 2018. There are 29 seats in this State and BJP won 24 in 2014. Repeating this was very tough after 2018 assembly polls where BJP was leading only in 14 seats. But a lot has happened in last 5 months. The farm loan waiver that was to happen did not happen and the farmer is upset. Plus BJP lost very narrowly and that generated sympathy for BJP and added to that is Modi’s popularity meant a record turnout. No state witnessed a jump in voting like MP and that means we can expect a 29/29 for BJP in MP, something that never happened before.
- Andhra Pradesh: Apart from Lok Sabha, Andhra Pradesh has also gone for Assembly Elections. We have a new party Jana Sena coming of Pawan Kalyan. This state is confusing, of the 9 polls, 5 have given Jagan victory and 4 have given TDP the victory. Chandrababu is already busy in forming coalition moving all across the Country. But things in AP itself aren’t good for him. Rayalaseema will be voting for YSRCP and that’s 70 seats. Whereas the Coastal Andhra is important as it has got 100 seats. It all comes down to the new entrant Pawan Kalyan, if Pawan Kalyan plays spoilsport for TDP, YSRCP will win assembly and win 18 Lok Sabha seats. If Pawan grabs Jagan’s votes then TDP will win assembly and win 12-14 Lok Sabha seats.
- West Bengal: 2nd most crucial state of this elections. BJP in 2014 won only 2 seats of 42 seats. TMC led by Mamata Banerjee had all the lion’s share winning 33 seats. But things have changed so shockingly and exit polls are giving equal seats for both BJP and TMC at 19-23 and 19-22. If this really happens then the slogan by BJP which said ‘Is baar half, agli baar saaf’ will be accomplished. This can happen in reality only if there has been something big on the ground, vote share has to transform so rapidly. Interestingly it’s predicted that Left will lose all its vote share to BJP and that makes BJP’s vote share higher. So again watch out for this state on May 23rd, big embarrassment coming either for Mamata Didi or Amit Bhai.
- Uttar Pradesh: After West Bengal comes Uttar Pradesh. BJP’s goldmine in 2014 where BJP won 71 seats of 80 seats. Everybody is talking differently on this state. We know that both SP and BSP have come together this time and are fighting against BJP. Simply put the voter share of SP is 29% which includes Muslims and Yadavs, BSP holds 20% Dalit votes. Put together this is 49% vote share. Whereas BJP has got only 42% vote share. This way BJP will win only 20-25 seats. But the story from the ground is that BJP is winning more, though the SP vote share hasn’t be touched, BSP’s 20% Dalit vote which has got Jatav and Non-Jatav votes are split. The Non-Jatav votes have moved to BJP’s favour and this will mean BJP can win 50-60 seats. We will know only on 23rd whether Modi’s magic will work or the SP-BSP’s simple arithmetic.
All eyes will be on May 23rd when the Television screens, anchors and social media will all be busy in counting and passing on their comments on the results. Some will celebrate and some will complain and some will leave. All due for May 23rd 2019!