1st phase of Lok Sabha elections 2019 got successfully completed on 11th of April with the voter turnout reading at 69.4%. This 69.4% is notch higher than the overall 2014 elections turnout of 66.40%. We are 2 days away from the 2nd phase and the last 5 days after the 1st phase got over, things have gone wild for both the parties. Election Commission banned Modi biopic right before 1st phase and now EC has banned several leaders from campaigning for their communal or unethical usage of words. Yogi Adityanath for 72 hours, Mayawati for 48 hours, Azam Khan for 72 hours and Maneka Gandhi for 48 hours. These are some big events in the last 5 days.
18th is the day of Second Phase and this time there are 96 seats which will go for polling on Thursday. Vellore seat polling has been cancelled after huge amounts of cash were seized in the house of a DMK leader. Like last Tuesday, First, let’s look at the top 10 constituencies of the Phase 2 elections.
1. Thoothukudi: Tamil Nadu is all about DMK and AIADMK. With sympathy running high it’s expected that DMK will win or rather sweep entire Tamil Nadu. But last few days things are getting better for AIADMK-BJP combine. Tuthukudi is the place where state BJP president Dr Tamilisai Soundarrajan is taking on Kanimozhi, the favourite daughter of Late Karunanidhi. With sympathy factor intact, things look a bit tough for Tamilisai.
2. Chennai Central: Sam Paul is contesting from PMK which is another ally of BJP. But then this is not going to make any difference as it seems, Dayanidhi Maran from DMK, two time MP and brother of Kalanidhi Maran is expected to win this seat back.
3. Nilgiris: We have the 2G scam acquitted A Raja from DMK fighting against Thyagarajan from AIADMK. This seat is more important for the people and it’s for them to decide either to vote a corrupt leader or someone else.
4. Siva Ganga: Another blockbuster place. After Chidambaram, we have seen that his son Karthi being pushed into politics. Yet another dynasty mode of politics starting in Tamil Nadu. Will Karthi win his father’s seat or are the corruption charges on the family will prove costly for them? This time BJP candidate H Raja is taking Karthi Chidambaram at Shiva Ganga.
5. Bangalore North: This is the seat of former CM and Union minister DV Sadananda Gowda. This looks more or less like a victory for BJP until or unless any miracles save Congress;
6. Mandya: Interesting story coming from this constituency. Nikhil Kumaraswamy the son of HD Kumara Swamy and the Grandson to Deva Gowda is fighting against the actor Ambareesh wife Sumalatha. Sumalatha is going Independent but is being supported by BJP. The Story is, though JDS and Congress are fighting together, there is a section of Congress leaders from Mandya who are secretly supporting Sumalatha. So, will Sumalatha stage an upset and win Mandya or will Nikhil trump her to retain this traditional JDS seat?
7. Chikballapur: This could be one of the easiest
8. Mathura: Going back to North India. We have Hema Malini contesting from BJP and Mahesh Pathak from Congress. Hema Malini as we know is the famous actress and for the first time, Dharmender campaigned for the Party and his Wife. Hema Malini has already won LS Seat before and will be looking to continue the same
9. Fatehpur Sikri: This is going to be the close contest between two leaders from BJP and INC. BJP has fielded Sadvi Niranjan Jyothi who is known for her controversial remarks on the opposition. On the other side we have Raj Babbar the actor from Congress. Close contest.
10. Srinagar: This is a going to be an easy win for NC Congress. Farooq Abdullah is the famous J&K leader and no doubt he would win this Seat and we will all see 80 plus Abdulla triumph again from Srinagar.
Coming now a little bit to the statistics, the second phase elections will cover 12 states and the union territory of Pondicherry. Tamil Nadu is the only state where all constituencies are going for polls while in other 11 states it going to be just another phase of the election.
There are totally 1590 candidates in the fray and let’s look at the 2014 results.
List of winners for this 96 in last elections:
• Tamil Nadu (38) NDA 2 UPA 0 Others 36
• Pondicherry (1) NDA 1 UPA 0 Others 0
• Karnataka (14) NDA 6 UPA 8 Others 0
• Orissa (5) NDA 0 UPA 0 Others 5
• Chattisgarh (3) NDA 3 UPA 0 Others 0
• Maharashtra (10) NDA 8 UPA 2 Others 0
• North East (7) NDA 4 UPA 2 Others 1
• West Bengal (3) NDA 1 UPA 0 Others 2
• Bihar (5) NDA 1 UPA 4 Others 0
• Uttar Pradesh (8) NDA 8 UPA 0 Others 0
• Jammu Kashmir (2) NDA 1 UPA 0 Others 1
So out of the total seats 96,
• NDA won 38
• UPA won 12
• Others won 46
Before ending the post today thought the number of seats that BJP holds look smaller in size one needs to go little deep. Of the 38 seats by NDA, only 27 are held by BJP which means 11 are coming from allies. So diving into the data, we must understand that in the last elections BJP went with only 1 ally (PMK) in Tamil Nadu and won 2 seats. One each shared. This way if we see, BJP has got an alliance with AIADMK now and this is going to be crucial. The mood of Tamil Nadu is quickly changing and the
The same way BJP is making inroads in Bihar, Bengal and Odisha where BJP tally will improve from 2014. If the results from these three states come good and in the other states if NDA holds on then we can see that NDA may win in the range of 40-45 seats. Not much time left, let’s wait and watch how the 2day of polling goes.