Market Trade Setup 31st July #Nifty

Markets and News

The last day of the calendar month of July and things are looking not so bright. After a while Dow Jones has ended around 150 points lower and the yield rates have also gone up and they are close to 3% now. This is primarily on the GDP numbers that came at 4.1% that triggered a fear of Fed being more hawkish in rising the interest rates that sparked fears in the minds of investors in US. Asia is also following the trend with most of the Asian markets in red with Hong Kong and Shanghai losing more than 0.5%. Brent crude is in the range of 74-75 dollars which is also keeping us nervous.

Domestic Cues

On the domestics, slight problems are building up on the Q1 results front with some of the sectors still not performing. Indigo Airlines came up with a disastrous result with profits dropping as much as 96%. The fuel costs were up 54% and that is mainly on the discounts, Idea was another disappointment with only 11.2% growth in margin and revenue is down by 4% and company declared profits only because it sold towers. Tech Mahindra was just about average and nothing much to talk about. D mart has come up with an excellent numbers with revenue up 27% and net profit up by 43% but since the stock has already moved a lot, there is less room for this stock on the upside.

Following are the Q1 results for the day:

1. Ajanta Pharma

2. Bank of India

3. Bluedart

4. Castrol India

5. Dabur

6. Jagran publications

7. Powergrid

8. Raymonds

9. Snowman logistics

10. Tata Motors

11. UPL

12. Vedanta Ltd

13. V Guard

Derivatives Action

On the derivatives front, there has been some action on the downside in Futures market yesterday morning when the Nifty fell after touching 10320 levels and that brought down the overall long positions from 59% to 58% and in the options market also the long calls have reduced in number and the short puts have increased and that brought the Nifty put call ratio back to 1.72 from 1.71. 11300 put saw maximum open interest of 4 lakh contracts followed by 11200 put that had 3.2 lakh contracts and on the call side 11600 call added 4.1 lakh positions and 11400 call added 2.8 lakh positions and 11300 call that added 1.8 lakh contracts. 11700 call also added 1.8 lakh contracts at 20 rupees premium.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

A mildly red Asia means we will also open flat around 11310-11330 range and 11350 might be the top and Nifty has some downward correction left in it. It might go to 11280 and the first support comes there breaking which we can see 11250 levels being touched today. So, a short position at the start between 11310-11330 levels with a target ranging from 11250-11270 can be taken today.

Bhagavadgita Chapter 10 Vibhuti Vistara Yoga Verse 14

Shloka

Vistarenaatmano yogam vibhootim cha janaardana;

Bhooyah kathaya triptirhi shrinvato naasti me’mritam.

Translation

Tell me again in detail, O Krishna, of Thy Yogic power and glory;

for I am not satisfied with what I have heard of Thy life-giving and nectar-like speech!

Interpretation

Arjuna after asking Lord Krishna to tell about the God’s glory, continues to speak in this shloka also and asks Lord Krishna to speak more. He requests Lord Krishna to tell him in detail about the yogic power and glory of the divine Lord. The yogic power here talks about the concentration that one needs to have while performing a task.  Arjuna also says that he is not satisfied with what he has so far heard. This not being satisfied is coming from the urge of listening more and more from the Lord, which actually talks about the interest that has created in the mind of Arjuna. . To substantiate his point Arjuna says that the speech that Lord has given so far is like nectar and he wants more and more of it.

Extending Interpretation to Mankind’s Life!

What Arjuna is experiencing here is a classic case of bhakt not having enough from his Master. Lord Krishna has chosen Himself to be the master of Arjuna and He starts reciting the Gita to Arjuna. After the initial bout of self-doubts Arjuna slowly falls into the rhythmic glory of Krishna and gets completely mesmerized in it. That is why in pervious yogas he hardly speaks allowing Lord Krishna to speak continuously without any interruptions. But once Lord Krishna stops, Arjuna is overwhelmed by what was said and wants to hear more and more. That’s why he asks Lord to continue to tell about Him.

In real life also, we encounter this in habit formation and getting used to doing things. As we start something, the initial enthusiasm takes us few steps but once routine gets established, we feel drawn out from what we are doing. That’s how many people abandon their tasks midway. But once you get rid of this feeling and starts focussing on the task with single mindedness automatically you will start liking what you are doing and it becomes a habit, that you will never like to leave.

Whether its devotion to God, attachment to individuals or continuation of the work that one is doing, it is very important to have the dedication towards the thing that you are doing. Just like how Arjuna, dedicatedly heard Lord Krishna and when Lord Krishna stops in the middle, he wants the Lord to continue, in the same way, even if you are encountered with situations that are tough to carryout the task that has become a habit for you, you will find the way out to continue wit the task as you are totally dedicated towards the task that you are performing.

Market Trade Setup 30th July #Nifty

Markets and News

Start of the first week of the August series and its starting with lot of expectations and promise. US starts off on a good note with the Q2 GDP for 2018 coming at 4.1% compared to 2.2% in Q1. This is the highest GDP that US clocked after Q3 in 2014 which saw 5.7% growth. However Dow Jones fell 80 points on different set of fears on investment and lending becoming expensive. The bad news is coming from tech stocks with Twitter falling 21% after Facebook’s 19% and that is not looking great. Asia however is flat and Brent Crude held on to its level of 74.2 dollars.

Domestic Cues

Coming to the domestics, today is the beginning of the 3-day credit policy meeting of RBI and there are certain factors that RBI needs to consider before taking a decision on rate hikes. Inflation is going to be the top of the list and so also the Crude price. Coming to Q1 results, Reliance comes up with a fantastic Q1 results. Apart from the ever performing petrochemical business, this quarter Reliance Retail and Reliance Jio have come up with very good numbers.

Retail business revenue grew by 7% but Jio went by bt 13.8% in revenues and Average revenue per user came down just 1.8% compared to 9.5% for Airtel. ICICI bank came up with just average result and reported a net loss of 120 Crore for this quarter for the first time in 17 years. Bank of Baroda however surprised everyone and came up with fantastic numbers. There was a 20% growth in loans and Gross NPAs also came down by 1.8%.

Following are the Q1 results that are expected to come today.

1. Aban offshore

2. Axis bank

3. Central bank

4. Century textiles

5. D mart

6. Escorts

7. Godrej Consumer products

8. HDFC

9. Idea Cellular

10. Indigo Airlines

11. JP Associaltes

12. Tech mahindra

13. Texmaco rail

Derivatives Action

On the derivatives front, Friday saw a lot of bullishness in the market with people actively going for the long positions as Nifty held 11230 levels. The series started at 54% long positions went to 59% by the end of the day. The options market also was steady with Nifty put call ratio at 1.71 at the end of the day vs 1.72 at the beginning. This is due to almost equal number of long calls and short puts. The short puts were initiated as many traders thought that downside is limited and long puts were bought thinking that there is a lot of room on the upside.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

Friday saw over 110 points spike on Nifty which is one of the very few high rallies. Today we are likely to start around 11280-11300 levels and these are the highest levels and there is no limit on the upside. But I advise caution because not everyday is a trading day and I advise you to keep away from markets till a definite trend emerges. So, dont get too greedy. Wait for my tweet, if there is a chance for taking any position.

Bhagavadgita Chapter 10 Vibhuti Vistara Yoga Verse 13

Chapter 10 Vibhuti Vistara Yoga Verse 13
Shloka

Vaktum arhasyasheshena divyaa hyaatmavibhootayah;

Yaabhir vibhootibhir lokaanimaamstwam vyaapya tishthasi.

Translation

Thou shouldst indeed tell, without reserve, of Thy divine glories

by which Thou existeth, pervading all these worlds. None else can do so.

Interpretation

Arjuna continues to speak in this shloka also the process of surrender to Lord Krishna, by calling Him the God of gods and the ruler of the whole world. He then says that Lord should tell without any reservations on the divine glories of Himself. Arjuna says that Lord exists in this world in the divine glories, and those glories should be known to everyone. These glories are spread out in all the worlds and only possible for the Lord Himself. No one else can attain such a divine glory, says Arjuna.

Extending Interpretation to Mankind’s Life!

This is a shloka where Arjuna goes to praise Lord Krishna a lot. Many wonder why Arjuna is praising the Lord so much and is it really necessary? One has to understand the fact that it is the gratitude that is making Arjuna to speak about all that he is speaking now. When you are filled with divinity combined with gratitude, you tend to speak your mind and Arjuna is just doing that. Divinity changes the perception of individuals and what has happened to Arjuna is the same. He is overwhelmed by the greatness of the Lord.

Since centuries and yugas many individuals have been experiencing this feeling. Whether it is sage Valmiki who found the Bhakti for Lord Rama or Annamaya in 16th century who found his devotion to Lord Venkateshwara and wrote songs praising Him, or Ramadasu who was also overwhelmed by the devotion he had for Lord Rama. The point here is, Bhakti, when it dawns upon an individual then his whole life goes in following that path and devoting one’s life in that devotion. This was happening from centuries and will continue to happen in future also.

Bhagavadgita Chapter 10 Vibhuti Vistara Yoga Verse 12

Chapter 10 Vibhuti Vistara Yoga Verse 12
Shloka

Swayamevaatmanaatmaanam vettha twam purushottama;

Bhootabhaavana bhootesha devadeva jagatpate.

Translation

Verily, Thou Thyself knowest Thyself by Thyself, O Supreme Person,

O source and Lord of beings, O God of gods, O ruler of the world!

Interpretation

Arjuna continues to talk about the greatness of Almighty in this shloka also. He says that only Lord Krishna knows about the origin of Himself. This is a continuation from the previous shloka where Arjuna says that none of the gods or demons know about the manifestations of the Supreme Almighty. Then then goes on to pray the Lord by using different terms to describe Him. He calls Lord Krishna a Supreme person, the source and the Lord of all beings on this Universe, the God of all gods and the ruler of this whole world!

Extending Interpretation to Mankind’s Life!

The state of mind of Arjuna is what we have to focus on, in this shloka. If we look at Arjuna at the beginning of the Gita, he was asking many questions, many doubts to Lord Krishna. He was not ready to accept Lord Krishna as the Supreme, as Lord is looking like him, appearing as any other human being. But as we go through a series of yogas, Arjuna comes to know of many things that he was not aware of, and as the knowledge in him went up, one by one the layers of ignorance disappeared from his mind and enlightenment about the Lord dawned upon him. Thus he now, accepts that Lord Krishna is the Supreme being who is educating him on the Gita.

In normal life also, we all face with trust issues. These trust issues can be on a person or a situation or a profession or an issue. Like Arjuna, it takes a long while for us to trust something. When you see a person not trusting on anything immediately, it is mainly due to his past experiences resulting from the trust being broken or he getting cheated. But one has to understands that, in life trust is fundamental and all the situations are not similar, his outlook will change. We should never lose a good person, a good situation or a good job only because we dont trust them.

We need to live through it like how Arjuna patiently heard Lord Krishna in the nine yogas, before trusting Him completely. We need to go through all the tough situations and challenges arising out of a person or a situation before calling it quits. A quitter is never a winner and the winner never quits. Trust, till you are proven wrong and learn a lesson or two every time the trust is broken. These are the few sayings, which we would have heard from our childhood and we need to put them in practice to see the results.

Bhagavadgita Chapter 10 Vibhuti Vistara Yoga Verse 11

Chapter 10 Vibhuti Vistara Yoga Verse 11
Shloka

Sarvametadritam manye yanmaam vadasi keshava;

Na hi te bhagavan vyaktim vidurdevaa na daanavaah.

Translation

I believe all this that Thou sayest to me as true, O Krishna!

Verily, O blessed Lord, neither the gods nor the demons know Thy manifestation!

Interpretation

Arjuna continues to talk to Lord Krishna in this shloka also. He acknowledges the fact that all the sages have declared the Supremacy of the Lord. Arjuna says that he believes in the Lord totally and says that whatever He has said so far is nothing but absolute truth! He then moves onto the manifestations of the Lord. Arjuna says that the different manifestations that Lord can take can never be seen nor understood by anyone and says that neither the gods nor the demons are aware of the manifestations that the great Lord takes.

Extending Interpretation to mankind’s Life!

The whole centre piece of this shloka is the belief that Arjuna expresses towards Lord Krishna. Everything in this Universe is centred on the belief and when belief is not that, nothing can ever be understood or justified. Lord Krishna has spoken more than nine yogas to Arjuna so far. What will happen if Arjuna doesn’t believe in what Lord said. Everything goes waste. Belief is not something that can be created from an external source. It is something that has to be generated internally.

There are many great souls who have lived and who are living in this world who have tremendous belief in what they did or doing. If APJ Abdul Kalam was not believing in what he is doing, he wouldn’t have met his death doing what he likes to do the most, that is delivering a lecture to his students. Kalam believed in imparting knowledge and building India. He tirelessly worked towards it and has built many missiles and also at the same time has imparted that knowledge to thousands of budding scientists across that country by delivering lectures. He collapsed on the stage, while delivering one such lecture. Such is the power of belief.

Another story of belief is what Sandeep Singh did in hockey, where even after his entire lower half of the body got paralysed, which is very crucial to any sportsman, he believed in himself and recovered. He came out of coma and went back to represent India in many international hockey tournaments and won medals. Look around there are many people who live with their strong and unshakable beliefs which inspires us to stick to our beliefs. The entire Gita is the story of belief. If Arjuna had not believed Krishna, Gita would not have come to this World.

Market Trade Setup 27th July #Nifty

Start of the new series today and this is a series that will be counted as one of te longest series. It is also coupled with one of the longest lunar eclipse to be witnessed is also happening tonight. The global news to start with is not that great. Facebook lost 100 billion dollars on a single day in the market cap with Facebook was down 19%. It is a worst fall for any listed company. To tell you how big is that 100 billion dollars there are only two listed companies in India, TCS and Reliance that has 100 billion dollars. Imagine one of these two companies becoming zero on a single day! That is what has happened to Facebook!!!

All is not that bad, as Amazon comes up with a fantastic result after Google and that has pushed up the index and Dow ended on a slightly positive note up nearly 70 plus point. NASDAQ however suffered a 1% loss mainly on the Facebook debacle. Asia is also not going great guns as Shanghai and Hongkong continue to fall on the back of weaker Yuan. The dollar index has crossed 94.6 level and that is putting pressure on many currencies. Brent Crude is also above 74.50 dollars and that also is not a great news.

Domestic Cues

Coming to the domestics we have some great news to start with. The best news has come from ITC which has come up with a fantastic Q1 number. The Cigarette volumes which everyone thought will be in negative has surprised everyone and has come at a positive 2%. That shows there are lot of people still smoking. The FMCG was another big surprise with 14% volume growth compared to 10% of HUL. Bharti Airtel also came up with a consolidated profit of 96 Cr as everyone was expecting losses. It was mainly on its African revenues. Today is also an important day for Q1.

Following are the Q1 results expected.

1. Bank of Baroda

2. Heritage foods

3. HCL Tech

4. ICICI bank

5. JSW energy

6. Jubiliant food works

7. Reliance Industries

8. Shoppers stop

All about August series

Today is the start of the August series and historically August has not been a great series. Last 3 August series have ended in red, especially the 2015 August that saw nearly 500 points down. But this August is starting on a different note. So, we need to see what happens. The rollovers are at a record 74% compared to an average 66% and this 74% rollovers is the highest we have seen since May 2017. The net long positions is also higher at 53% and the Nifty put call ratio is starting at a heavy 1.72 and that is a big worry.

What to expect in this August?

If we look at the contours, 11000 put has a maximum open interest and 11500 call has the maximum open interest in put and call side. 10800 and 10600 puts also have substantial open interests and after 11000, 10500 put has the 2nd highest open interest. That means there are people who do believe that 10500 level is possible if there is a sharp fall. This is confirmed with 11000 call having 2nd highest open interest at 11000 after 11500. So, if there is a bit of a fall 11000 will be easily taken out. On the positive side, we can see 11500 happening in this series and the worst that can happen is 10500. On the middle scale, 10750-11310 is a range in which Nifty can spend some time.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

The first day of the series historically has always been positive and today we are likely to open on positive note and it could be at another all time high and 11200 is a possibility today. We might encounter some resistance around 11230 levels and we might test 11150 and 11120 if there is a fall. So, its a 50-50 scenario for bulls and bears today. So, either stay out or wait for my call during the day to take a long position or short position intraday.

Bhagavadgita Chapter 10 Vibhuti Vistara Yoga Verse 10

Chapter 10 Vibhuti Vistara Yoga Verse 10
Shloka

Arjuna Uvacha:

Aahustwaam rishayah sarve devarshirnaaradastathaa;

Asito devalo vyaasah swayam chaiva braveeshi me.

Translation

Arjuna Said:

All the sages have thus declared Thee, as also the divine sage Narada;

so also Asita, Devala and Vyasa; and now Thou Thyself sayest so to me

Interpretation

After listening to Lord Krishna about the compassion that a person should have for Him to dwell in that person, Arjuna starts speaking. He says to Lord Krishna that the greatness of the Lord has already been said by people before. It was declared by all sages. Sage Narada also has talked about it and it was also declared by sages like Asita, Devala and Vyasa. They all have sung the praises of the Lord. Now you yourself is talking about it and declaring the same to me, says Lord Krishna.

Extending Interpretation to Mankind’s Life!

This is the first time in Bhagavadgita that Arjuna openly admits the greatness of Lord Krishna. After listening to Him and His greatness, slowly Arjuna comes to realize what Lord Krishna was trying to say. Arjuna is somewhere closer to accepting Him as the Supreme truth and it is authenticated by the fact that he invokes the names of the great sages. One of them he says is Narada. We all have been listening to this name narada many times. We know him as the person who creates fights between people. If that is the case then why is Narada such a great sage?

Narada is a sage who is well versed with puranas and has the mastery over many things. That includes Grammar, pronunciation, astronomy and religious rituals. He is also an expert in logic and has a powerful memory. He possesses the knowledge of the whole universe and everything in it. Apart from all this he is also an expert in war strategies, military campaigns also. Whenever such a learned person talks it always creates misunderstandings between people and what has emerged out of those misunderstandings were important lessons of life that one can only experience and learn. Such is the wisdom of Narada.

Arjuna here understands the importance of what Lord Krishna is saying and says that the greatness of Him was acknowledged by the sage Narada Himself. Not only that other great sages also have acknowledged the greatness. In a way Arjuna is making us to re-look at ourselves and acknowledge the greatness of God. Sometimes we feel so proud of ourselves that we forget the role of God in our success. Whenever we acknowledge the greatness of God, it reminds us of our humbleness and our dependency on God for getting many things on track.

Market Trade Setup 26th July #Nifty

Markets and News
Finally the expiry day is here and all the focus will be on the expiry cues. The cues from US are positive with Dow gaining another 170 plus points last night and the trade wars also seem to be ebbing down. The only negative from US is the social media companies like Facebook, Twitter and Snapchat all report not so great numbers. Asia is still bit worried on Yuan and as a result Hong Kong, Shanghai and Japan are trading flat to negative. Brent Crude has crossed 74 dollars and now trading at 74.6 and now that would be watched closely.
On the domestic front, The Q1 results are largely going fine with Bharti infratel and IRB infra reporting average numbers while L&T, Ambuja cements and canara bank comes up with very good numbers while Hero motocorp has been bit of a disappointment.  Today is an important day on Q1 front and lot of companies are reporting their Q1.
Following are the Q1 results expected today.
1. Bharti Airtel
2. Biocon Pharma
3. Colgate Pamolive
4. Container Corp
5. Dr. Reddy’s
6. Eveready
7. ITC
8. J&K bank
9. Lakshmi vilas bank
10. Maruti Suzuki
11. NIIT
12. SBI Life
13. Tata coffee
14. Tata power
15. Yes bank
Today is the expiry day for the July series and so for its 543 points gain in this series which is the highest in last 4 July series. Last year we had 514 points gain for July and we have to see if this year it remains above or not. At the beginning of the series on 29th June I had said that July will be a good series and Nifty will go to 11000 and as said Nifty went to 11000 and it might even touch all time high and even expire at an all time high. So this series has been great for bulls and now it will be 4-3 for the bulls. It all goes to August to see whether bulls will consolidate further or not.
Derivatives Action
On the derivatives front, the rollovers have crossed 50 and stand at 51% now. The Nifty put call ratio remained stagnant at 1.89 and with expiry happening today, this is more or less doesn’t matter now. But what matters is the expiry now. 11000 put has the maximum open interest of 49.7 lakh contracts now and 11200 call has 32.1 lakh contracts and Nifty is more closer to 11200 mark so today the pressure will be more on the upside and that means a limited movement on the upward direction.
What is the Nifty call for the day?
A flat to positive start around 11150 mark is expected and in the first half hour there is a possibility of touching an all time high is there. From 11180 there is a pressure to sell and if that happens it could test 11120 levels on the down side. The 3PM move is very crucial and if it happens on the upside when Nifty is below 11150 then we can see a 11180-11200 expiry which is an all time high expiry. But if Nifty is above 11150 and 3PM move happen downward then we could see a 11120-11140 expiry and this looks like the most probable scenario. You have a position and keep it intact and keep your fingers crossed.