After 8 days of continues fall, finally we saw a sharp rally yesterday, especially in the last hour and what we saw was a 130 point rally that took Nifty above 10720 and closed at 10735. For last 2 days I was talking about Nifty conquering10700-10720mark and that finally happened yesterday. The options data from the weekly series of Nifty also indicated 10800 as the roof and we are going there. Globally things are looking fine with Dow Jones closing in 60 point positive zone but the Asian markets are trading in the mixed zone with Hong Kong in mild positive while China and Japan are in mild red. The bad news is on Brent crude which has climbed to 66.8 dollars and now a touching distance away from 67 dollars.
On the domestic front, the Pulwama news is digested, the people responsible were eliminated and market seems to have put that news behind. The big news however is the PSU bank recapitalization that was announced and that has led a rally in many PSU banks with IDBI bank going up 3% and SBI, Canara bank and Syndicate bank gaining between 2 to 2.5%. Corporation bank and allahabad bank got the highest recapitalization of 9000 Cr and 6900 Cr respectively. Lets see how these two stocks react today. On the technical side we have crossed the 100 day moving average of 10690 yesterday and next we have the 20 and 50 day moving average of 10820 and that will be a resistance point to watch out for.
On the derivative front, today is the weekly expiry for the Nifty and yesterday itself we have seen a lot of reaction with 9 lakh crore turnover on Index options and the overall derivative turnover of 10.1 lakh crore. We have to see if we can see another 20 lakh crore turnover or not today. 10600 put has the maximum open interest of 15.3 lakh positions and 10700 also has 11.9 lakh positions so today if we break 10690 by chance then we have the chances of going to 10620 mark. On the call side 10800 is a firm resistance and that would be maintained at any cost. For the monthly expiry series the Nifty put call ratio yesterday jumped from 1.11 to 1.30. I had indicated that there would be a rally, as the PCR has gone really low. 10400 put and 11000 call continue to have maximum open interest for the 28th Feb expiry.
What is the Nifty call for the day?
Yesterday, I was talking about a mild rally which can take Nifty to10700-10720mark and what we got was a rally that took Nifty to 10735 mark. If you had taken positions yesterday, you would have made mild profits and would have closed the positions yesterday. If you had not taken any position, strictly following my advice that 10650 was not reached, then no problem, today you will get an opportunity again. A mildly red Asia and rising Brent Crude prices means we will open a bit down today around10670-10690mark and that presents you with a fresh opportunity to enter into a long position again. Make sure that Nifty doesnt fall below 10650 mark till 10.30 then go long around 10680 mark with10730-10750as a target. If by any chance the target is not reached and Nifty stays above10660-10680mark then keep your positions intact and take it to tomorrow.
Satkaaramaanapoojaartham tapo dambhena chaiva yat;Kriyate tadiha proktam raajasam chalamadhruvam.
The austerity which is practiced with the object of gaining good reception, honour and worship with hypocrisy, is here said to be Rajasic, unstable and transitory.
This shloka talks about the austerities that a Rajasic mind prefers. We have seen in the previous shloka how a steadfast mind practices Sattwik austerities. The Rajasic austerities are aimed at gaining a good reception, which actually means that whatever work the person undertakes, he is expecting an appreciation for the same. Apart from that Rajasic person’s austerities are also aimed at giving him honor and worship of people around and the person also becomes a hypocrite who in the process, says one and does another. Also, Lord tells that this Rajasic behaviour exhibited by the person is unstable and transitory.
Extending Interpretation to Mankind’s Life!
Why is Lord Krishna saying that the Rajasic nature of an individual is unstable and transitory? Here we have to understand the true nature of a Rajasic person. A Rajasic person is someone who strives for excellence in everything he does. He is hardworking and fulfills all his responsibilities without any delay. But the problem is, as the person completes his work and achieves success and takes rewards, he starts attributing them to himself. He feels that only because of his abilities he was able to achieve success. That builds a sense of over confidence in him and gives him false sense of invincibility and superiority, which in the due course becomes the reason for his downfall.
Take a look at any businessman or a political leader or a community head, we have seen that many of them steadily rise to glory and then go through a sharp decline to depths of degradation. It happens because from a lazy and easy going and static tamasic state a person becomes dynamic and hardworking, taking him to the Rajasic state. Till that point he is alright. But one aspect of his personality has to undergo a change to take him to sattwik stage, but that doesn’t happen. That is, whatever was achieved was mandated and charted by Almighty and he is just a doer. This process gets delayed because he believes in self and becomes a hypocrite also, by saying one thing and doing another.
All this he does only to keep his success and name and even resorts to rituals to prevent himself from any kind of a downfall to his glory. Till this feeling remains he is a Rajasic person. Lord calls it transitory because like the way he changed from tamsic to Rajasic, one day he will realise that nothing was his achievement alone, and that takes him to sattwik stage. Thus whatever he is doing in the Rajasic stage is just temporary and like the way he came from Tamasic to Rajasic, he has to one day progress from Rajasic to Sattwik.
After a great start, when we all thought that we might escape a fall and close at 10700 level we saw the classic last hour fall of nearly 120 points that took Nifty to below 10600 and due to the averaging of values we closed just above 10600 mark at 10604. This marks the 8th consecutive fall and we have not witnessed it for a long time, not in last 4-5 years! Are we going to see another one today or is the pain over for now? World markets are mixed with Dow Jones closing totally flat with a gain of just 8 points while Asian markets are showing a lot of positivity with Hong Kong up close to 350 points and Japan up 150 points and other markets in 0.5 to 1.5% up.
On the domestic front, Crude seems to be emerging as a worry as Brent is now at 66.5 dollars. This will put some pressure on the rupee and in the domestic market also the petrol prices are being revised on the upside. Last 4 days saw 60 paise rise in Petrol prices in Hyderabad and Petrol now stands at 75.34. On the macro front, GDP figures are going to be out in a week’s time and going by the Q3 results things look bleak and there is a fear that GDP which grew at 8.2% in Q1 is likely to drop below 7% in Q3 and that will act negatively on the market. On the political front, the developments on Pulwama and the political statements that the leaders make will have to be watched very carefully.
On the derivatives front, yesterday was the story where neither in futures nor in options we went anywhere. The Morning saw a lot of buying in Futures but everything changed as Nifty started to fall. The long positions still remain at 45% and the Nifty put call ratio fell a bit to 1.11 vs 1.13 seen at the beginning of the day. This is a level where puts will get demand and that means markets should go up. Tomorrow is the weekly expiry of Options and on the put side 10600 has the maximum open interest and 10800 call has the maximum open interest which means that there is some scope for a rally. On the monthly contracts however 10400 put and 11000 call has the highest open interest. 10700 put and 10800 call are also gaining open interest and we need to watch them.
What is the Nifty call for the day?
Yesterday, if you have thought that you missed a good chance to make money, you would have heaved a sigh of relief by evening that your money is safe in your pocket. This is the nature of the market now and taking risks comes at a huge cost. With a 10670 open and 10710 seeing selling you really wouldn’t have any chance to enter or exit. Today we will see a positive start again due to positivity in Asia at around 10630-10660 levels. What happens after that needs to be seen. If 10620-10650 range is protected in the first hour, then take a small risk and go for a long position with 10700-10720 as the target, whenever it comes. You might take it to tomorrow also if targets are not met today. Make sure that your entry point is between 10620-10660 mark so that the profit you get is meaningful and take this position only if 10620 is not broken. If it is broken, and Nifty goes below 10580 then stay away.
On the 14th of Feb 2019, the day recognised to be celebrated as the day of ‘Love’ turned out to be a Brutal and a Horrified day for 1.3 billion Indians. The terror attack in Pulwama district in Kashmir carried out by the Jaish-e-Mohammad terrorist killed more than 40 CRPF Jawans. It was an attack that left the entire country speechless and pushed every Indian into an emotional tailspin. People across the length and breadth were demanding for a befitting reply and the one thing that was common in everyone’s mind is ‘Revenge’. Govt has given a clear indication that it would act tough and vowed to pay for every drop of blood that the martyred Jawans shed.
Entire World is also moved by this attack and as many as 60 countries have come out in support of India and have sent a strong warning to Pakistan. UN has also strongly condemned the attack and urged for punishment to those who are involved. USA and Trump have gone on to say that Pakistan must stop the funding and supporting the terrorists on their soil. These were few opinions of Leaders against Pakistan in the last 3 days since the attack happened.
India in the wake of this attack has withdrawn the Most Favoured Nation tag to Pakistan, Movie artists association banned the Pakistani stars from being a part of the Indian entertainment industry and the customs duty on Pak imports have been raised by 200%. Apart from this Social Media is on full trolling of the Pakistanis. Pakistan is under pressure and PM Imran Khan had come out after 5 days to say that Pakistan believes in peace but will not keep quiet if it India attacks it. India made it clear that it is not in war with Pakistan, but with the Terrorists who are supported by ISI. If the world is raising questions at you, then PM Imran Khan you must do something about it and not ask for proof which actually is visible right in front of him. It must condemn the attacks and start an operation to find the terrorist groups in their soil, and hand them over to India.
If that’s how the things are across the Border, internally also things aren’t that fine. India did conduct an operation to clear the cockroaches who planned the Pulwama attack. Indian army was successful to eliminate the cowards and Jihadi JeM terrorists, though unfortunately, we lost 4 of our soldiers, taking the toll of death of Jawaans to 44 in last week. Indian army is yet not finished and is up to something big to clean the terror that is taking the lives of innocent.
But unfortunately, the democracy in India is making people to talk anything that they wish which is unacceptable. Sidhu, who is a former cricketer and now the MLA from Punjab is asking the people of India why should the entire country be criminalised for the 4 terrorists? Media personnel, especially the journalists are raising alarm for the Kashmiri Youth and creating unwanted panic in them. One of the entertainment industry ladies asks people why are we feeling so much grief for the Army when there are many more others who die daily because of food etc;
What are these voices made of? How can one be so illogical against the country? Where has the unity of India gone in the tough times, even after all the political parties have taken a singular stand of punishing Pakistan and seeking for an act of revenge, why are some set of people still cursing and acting manipulative. People must stay united in these tough times to back the soldiers, the govt so that the problem can be handled the way the Country wants. Spreading false and scripted stories has become part of the DNA of these heartless people who are time and again continuing to support the anti-nationals and bringing violence to the Country.
This manipulation of facts has to Stop, hashtags like How’s the Jaish has to stop, Violence has to Stop, Terrorism has to Stop! If it requires a violent and drastic step against the terrorists has to be taken, then let it be. This is not the time to talk about peace and talks, because it undermines the very purpose and the sacrifice that those soldiers have made to protect our motherland.
Let us make a resolution to root out the terrorism forever from our soil and let’s continue this struggle till the last terrorist is gunned down.
This threefold austerity practised by steadfast men with the utmost faith, desiring no reward, they call Sattwik.
After talking about the three fold path or the austerities of body, speech and mind Lord Krishna in this shloka is talking about how it can be connected to the three gunas of Sattwik, Rajasic and Tamasic. This shloka focuses on Sattwik alone. Lord Krishna again talks about a steadfast mind adopting this three fold austerity because a mind which doesnt waver at all can only take this. Faith is the other point that Lord is mentioning saying that a person who has utmost faith and the one who doesn’t desire any kind of reward practice these austerities then he is called as a sattwik person.
Extending Interpretation to Mankind’s Life!
The shloka reminds me Hrishikesh Mukherjee’s iconic film Anand, where the protagonist Anand, the role essayed by legendary Rajesh Khanna, exhibits the characteristics portrayed in this shloka. Anand is a cancer patient left with few months to survive in this world and so he decides to use this time to lead a simple life, speak good about others and good about things which brings happiness with a mind which is serene and pure. It is very difficult for a person to have a controlon himself and his emotions when he knows that he is dying in few months. This austerity of body, speech and mind has only made him to have that state of mind.
If you see him, he makes people around him so happy that people develop an instant attachment towards him. That is only possible when you have no desires left in you. You only work for the betterment of the society and people around you and thats when people gets emotionally attached to you. He fixes up the marriage of his best friend and in the process teaches some valuable lessons in life about attachment and detachment to various people around him. Faith is the bedrock of everything that happens in his life and his faith alone has given him that energy. Cant think of a more sattwik person than Anand to give as an example. Watch the movie and you will understand what he is and what sattwik personality can do.
The second half of expiry starts off on a disappointing note when the whole world was rallying. Nifty lost nearly 70 points and closed below 10650 which is below all the moving averages, the 20, 50, 100 and 200 dma. The last standing value was 100dma of 10690 which was emphatically broken yesterday. There was no doubt that we were on a downward spiral but where exactly it ends needs to be seen. Yesterday US markets were shut due to President’s day and today Asian markets are in mild green with Hong Kong 60 points and Japan, Shanghai and Korea are absolutely flat. Brent Crude seems to have stabilized at 66 zones and its trading at 66.1 dollars now.
On the domestic front, the big news is the RBI interim dividend of 28,000 Cr given to the Govt. There is a big debate going whether the new RBI Governor was too kind to Govt but if you look at the history the 3 years of Rajan saw an average of 60,000 Cr and its only after that we had some dividend kept as reserves. But now the question is should any money be kept as reserves or the entire excess amount be given to Govt. The conclusion is its left to RBI to decide. So, this fiscal Govt got 78,000 Cr with 50,000 Cr coming in August and 28,000 Cr coming now. In other news, Ambuja cements one of the last companies to come up with its Q3 has disappointed and thus officially the Q3 calendar is over for now.
On the derivatives front, there was selling yesterday also by FIIs and now in the last 6 trading sessions, FIIs were sellers. The overall long positions now stand at 45% for Nifty and on the options front there was a massive demand for calls and that took the Nifty put-call ratio to 1.13 from 1.30. Now we have been falling from the last 7 trading sessions and we lost 430 points in last 7 sessions. Now 10400 put has established itself as the strike with highest open interest as 10700 put which was ahead of 10400 lost 5.1 lakh contracts in unwinding. On the call side 10800 call is also picking up open interest and soon we might have 10400 as the support and 10800 as resistance for Nifty.
What is the Nifty call for the day?
We can’t look at the world and trade because the market is on such a downward spiral that you have nothing to trade as a bull. Now with no moving averages offering support, the only support zone we can look at is 10530-10550 zone which are the lows that Nifty made on December 11th when BJP lost all three state elections and on 26th December. Now we need to see whether we find support there or not. For today we might open between 10650-10670 and if there is shorting at 10700-10720 zone we will fall again. Yesterday’s low of 10620 might offer as a support. If that doesn’t hold then we are on our way towards 10550 zones. Today also its AVOID and see whether Nifty stabilizes or not. Stabilization is when Nifty closes in 10680-10700 range.
Manahprasaadah saumyatwam maunamaatmavinigrahah; Bhaavasamshuddhirityetat tapo maanasamuchyate.
Serenity of mind, good-heartedness, purity of nature, self-control—this is called mental austerity.
After talking about the austerities of the body and austerity of the speech, Lord Krishna in this shloka is talking about the austerity of mind. The first aspect that He is touching upon is the serenity of mind. The mind can do many things and a disturbed mind can make many things worse, thus a serene or a calm mind can prevent such damages, and channelise in doing things that are productive. Then the Lord also talks about the good-heartedness and purity of nature which is required for someone to have a serene mind. Lastly, Lord mentions self-control as an important thing for mental austerity. Self-control can prevent many wrong things from occurring and a mind which has control on itself will automatically have a serene mind, a good heart and purity of nature.
Extending Interpretation to Mankind’s Life!
The most important thing that one needs to understand here is self-control. There are many things that mind wants to do, it always runs behind things which you don’t have leaving things that are within your control. We also have a saying “The grass always appears greener on the other side” which directly means that something which you don’t have always appears attractive than a much superior thing you already have. This is where the self-control of a person comes into the picture. People get bored of things easily and want newer things and newer experiences, which also comes under the realm of self-control. So, how exactly one develops this self-control?
Satisfaction and having a realistic view of one’s abilities are very important for a person to have self-control. This is where it is linked to the serenity of mind, good-heartedness and purity of nature. Good heart thinks about others and is bestowed with the ability to do things selflessly. When someone comes to you for seeking advice, do you keep them in mind or do you keep yourself in mind, while advising them? If you want to be popular as a good adviser you will promote your interest and advise him, else you will not even allow your name to appear anywhere and advise him discretly. This requires a good heart and pure nature. When you do that it gives a lot of happiness to your mind. A person who goes in that direction keeps doing things that are selfless and that according to Lord Krishna is the serenity of mind.
A nervous weekend comes to an end and we are back to the second half of this shortest expiry monthly series. Nervous on what will happen at the borders and nothing big has happened and that is the good news as well as bad news. Good news because we will still work on the other known cues to predict the markets and bad news because uncertainty and pressure will continue in the markets and so everything will be approached on a doubtful note. Meanwhile, the positive news on the US-China trade talks pushed up the US markets which rose by a massive 440 points. That rubbed off on the Asian markets also today and Hong Kong is up close to 500 points now and Japan is up 370 points and all the other Asian markets are trading in the green.
On the domestic front, OPEC has further cut the crude production and that has pushed the crude oil from 65 dollars at the weekend to 66.2 dollars and that would be one of the reasons why Nifty might not go up as much as other markets today. Added to that we have the big domestic factor of Pulwama attacks where Govt has not taken any concrete steps against Pakistan except warning them, which will weigh on the minds of the markets. RBI has pulled up Yes bank for revealing the confidential letter that it sent them about the no divergence and it is nothing short of a breach of trust and confidentiality norms. Today you might see Yes bank stock in the pressure again. On the Q3 front, results season has almost ended and today Ambuja cement is only the major company up with their Q3.
On the derivatives front, Friday saw a lot of short positions getting built on the Nifty Futures and with that, the overall long positions fell to 47% at the end of the day from 49% at the beginning of the day. On the options front also, the Nifty put-call ratio dropped to 1.30 from 1.35, even though markets recovered at the end of the day on Friday. 10400 put added maximum contracts of 2.6 lakh followed by 10500 put which added 2.4 lakh contracts and 10700 put 1.7 lakh contracts. All the other Strikes shed open interest. 10700 put has highest open interest at 32.1 lakh positions while 10400 put is close behind at 31.3 lakh contracts. So, any fall below 10700 today might take Nifty towards the 10400 mark and this is something that traders should closely observe. On the call side, 11000 call is acting as the roof to the market.
What is the Nifty call for the day?
Despite a positive Asia, we might not open that positive today because of the crude and the domestic factors and we could see an opening between 10730-10760 mark with a maximum upside potential of 10780-10800. I had stopped you from taking any positions and Friday but on Thursday I asked you to go long at 10720 levels. If you had taken that position, today is the best time to exit. Exit this position anywhere between 10770-10790 levels and see what market does. On the down side 10620-10650 might act as a support to the market. Today is also a no trade day for me as we are going through a severe pressure from within for whatever positive factors that are occurring globally. If today Nifty closes above 10750 then we can look at some trades tomorrow.
Anudwegakaram vaakyam satyam priyahitam cha yat; Swaadhyaayaabhyasanam chaiva vaangmayam tapa uchyate.
Speech which causes no excitement and is truthful, pleasant and beneficial, the practice of the study of the Vedas, are called austerity of speech.
After talking about the austerity of the body in this shloka Lord Krishna narrates what exactly is declared as the austerity of speech. He says that those words that never cause any distress to others should always be spoken. Then those words have to be truthful because pleasant words that are not truthful should never be spoken. The third point that Lord mentions here is that one should always speak beneficial words and stay away from speaking harsh, negative and distressful words. Apart from all this Lord also says that those words which are spoken during the practice of Vedas also comes under the austerity of speech.
Extending Interpretation to Mankind’s Life!
There is this famous quote from Manusmriti which I read a few years ago, that fits aptly to interpret this shloka. Manu says “One should only speak what is true. One should only speak what is pleasant. But one should not speak the truth if it is not pleasant, nor one should speak an untruth which is pleasant. This is the ancient dharma”. This I think I read somewhere at the beginning of 2015 and from then on it has become the cornerstone of the philosophy of my speech. The purpose of our speech is to communicate and we need to always keep the purity of our communication. The austerity of speech can be attain only if you follow this philosophy.
Lord is telling two things here. First is you should always speak good. You should always speak things that motivate others, makes them positive and brings something good out of them. Second is one should always tell the truth. If you say anything which is untrue, it takes away your credibility and makes you a person who is seen as an untrustworthy liar. The underlying thing is, we speak for our benefit and we also speak for our dharma. We need to align these two, our dharma is our benefit and thus what we speak, if we align with our dharma then automatically we get benefitted out of it. But if we look at only our benefit, side-stepping dharma, then we might end up speaking things that are lies and that if caught, will take away the trust and credibility that we carry.
If this is about speaking good thing and things which are true, there can be a situation where we have to tell a truth which causes a lot of distress and which is unpleasant. Should you tell that truth and fulfil your dharma? This is where we are in “Dharam sankat” or “dilemma of truth”. Here, Lord says don’t speak the truth which spreads unpleasantness even if it is your dharma. Let time decide the way and means for the truth to come out. You should not be the reason for spreading that unpleasantness. The other part is people feel that they should always speak pleasant things so, in that process, they feel that speaking something pleasant but which is an untruth is allowed. But according to scriptures, it is not allowed. The question is why?
A unpleasant truth makes the person unhappy and demotivates him from the path that is why it should not be spoken. But a pleasant thing which is not a truth creates unrealistic expectation and over estimation of one’s abilities. Though it is pleasant it should never be spoken. Encourage people realistically, don’t make promises or give them something which is unrealistic and beyond their reach. Such a thing can damage them and their confidence forever. Thus we have permission to speak positive, good and motivating things, but those which are truthful only. If one takes this and practices in his life, his words will become so powerful that it will have the power to change millions of people around him. That’s the power of austerity of speech.